Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 1/17/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026

Location: Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX

TV: ESPN+

Moody Coliseum is where the SMU Mustangs (13-4) will compete against the Virginia Cavaliers (15-2) on Saturday.

The Virginia Cavaliers stepped onto the hardwood against Louisville and notched a win by a score of 79-70 in their last contest. Virginia walked away from the game having earned a 39.6% FG percentage (21 of 53) and knocked down 14 of their 34 3-pointers. From the free throw line, the Cavaliers made 23 of their 29 shots for a percentage of 79.3%. When it comes to grabbing boards, they earned a total of 42 with 12 of them being of the offensive variety. They also recorded 15 dimes for this contest as well as forcing the other team into 8 turnovers and having 4 steals. With regard to defending, Virginia allowed their opponent to shoot 35.8% from the field on 24 of 67 shooting. Louisville distributed 13 assists and had 8 steals for this game. Additionally, Louisville snagged 33 boards (14 offensive, 19 defensive), but didn't notch a rejection. Louisville finished the contest at 66.7% from the charity stripe by knocking down 12 of 18 attempts. They also buried 10 of their 38 attempts from downtown. In regard to personal fouls, the Cavaliers ended up with 22 while Louisville accumulated 21 personal fouls.

Malik Thomas is a player who came through for the matchup. He finished with 19 points on 6 of 9 shooting. He saw the court for 25 mins played and also totaled 5 rebounds. He finished shooting 66.7% from the field and recorded 3 assists.

Get all of our NCAA Betting Picks

Virginia heads into this game with a mark of 15-2 for the season. They are turning it over 10.8 times per game and as a team they commit 19.1 personal fouls per contest. As a team, Virginia is snagging 42.1 boards per game and has 296 dimes for the year, which is 56th in D-1 in terms of passing the rock. The Cavaliers are shooting 37.0% from downtown (178 of 481) and 69.6% from the free throw line. They average 84.7 points per contest (51st in college) on 47.7% from the floor.

On defense, the Cavaliers are forcing their opponents into 11.4 turnovers per contest while drawing 19.3 personal fouls. They are currently ranked 24th in the country in giving up assists with 185 conceded for the campaign. The Cavaliers are giving up a FG percentage of 37.9% (382 of 1,009) and they surrender 33.0 boards per game as a squad. They are conceding 28.6% on shots from downtown and they are ranked 40th in college hoops in points per game allowed (67.0).

In their last game, the SMU Mustangs went home victorious with a score of 77-76 when they faced Virginia Tech. The Mustangs earned 25 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive rebounds for a total of 34 in this game. They coughed it up 10 times, while earning 5 steals for this contest. Virginia Tech committed 16 fouls for this game which took the Mustangs to the charity stripe for a total of 23 attempts. They were able to knock down 16 of the free throws for a clip of 69.6%. When talking about shooting from downtown, SMU converted 3 of 15 tries (20.0%). When the game finished, the Mustangs went 29 for 60 from the floor which had them at 48.3%. The Mustangs allowed Virginia Tech to convert 28 of 61 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 45.9% for the contest. They finished 32.1% from three-point range by going 9 out of 28 and finished the contest at 11 out of 18 from the charity stripe (61.1%). In relation to how they cleaned up the glass, SMU permitted Virginia Tech to snag 33 in total (11 on the offensive glass).

Jaden Toombs was important for the Mustangs in this contest. He scored 23 points in his 34 minutes on the hardwood, but wasn't able to earn an assist. He made 10 out of 12 in the matchup giving him a rate of 83.3%, and tallied 7 rebounds.

SMU has a mark of 13-4 on the year. As an offense, the Mustangs are connecting on 50.1% from the floor, which is 20th in the country. SMU has totaled 1,503 points so far this year (88.4 per game) and they pull in 38.6 rebounds per contest. They are getting an assist 17.9 times per game (31st in the country) and they turn the ball over 11.9 times per contest. The Mustangs have committed 17.5 fouls per contest and they connect on 77.2% from the charity stripe.

The SMU defense concedes 31.6% on 3-point attempts (148 of 468) and their opponents are converting on 71.5% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have conceded 15.8 assists and 34.1 boards every game, which is ranked 321st and 161st in Division 1. The Mustangs defensively are ranked 273rd in college hoops in points per game surrendered with 77.0. They are able to force 13.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 42.8% from the floor (137th in college).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Virginia

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get college basketball picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bets by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.