VMI Keydets vs SMU Mustangs Prediction, 11/5/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: VMI Keydets vs SMU Mustangs

Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026

Location: Moody Coliseum (Dallas) in Dallas, TX

TV: ESPN+

Odds/Point Spread: VMI (+23.5)

Moody Coliseum (Dallas) is the site where the SMU Mustangs (20-14 last year) will attempt to defeat the VMI Keydets (6-26 last season) on Thursday. SMU opens this contest as 23.5-point favorites. The over/under is 156.5.

The VMI Keydets stepped onto the hardwood against Virginia-Lynchburg and notched a win by a score of 115-83 in their last game. In regard to personal fouls, the Keydets ended up finishing with 14 and Virginia-Lynchburg finished the game with 14 personal fouls. They also converted 6 of 22 attempts from beyond the arc. Virginia-Lynchburg ended up shooting 65.2% at the charity stripe by making 15 of their 23 tries. On top of that, Virginia-Lynchburg collected 33 rebounds (7 offensive, 26 defensive), but wasn't able to put a block in the stat sheet. Virginia-Lynchburg totaled 14 assists and had 7 steals in this contest. When discussing defending, VMI allowed the other team to shoot 43.1% from the field on 31 out of 72 shooting. They also recorded 27 assists for this contest while forcing the other team into 14 turnovers and having 11 steals. With regard to pulling down rebounds, they collected 52 with 18 of them being of the offensive sort. At the free throw line, the Keydets converted 11 of 18 shots for a percentage of 61.1%. VMI finished having earned a 48.3% field goal percentage (43 of 89) and knocked down 18 of their 44 3-point attempts.

Alexander Daushvili is a player who was a factor in this matchup. He accounted for 15 points on 6 out of 7 shooting. He played for 16 mins played and snagged 7 rebounds. He ended up shooting 85.7% from the floor but wasn't able to get an assist.

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VMI comes into this contest after finishing with a win-loss mark of 6-26 last season. They lost possession by turning the ball over 10.0 times per game and as a unit committed 16.7 fouls per contest. As a group, VMI pulled down 33.3 boards per game and totaled 403 dimes over the course of last season, which ranked 286th in college in terms of passing. The Keydets connected on 32.9% on 3-point shots (343 of 1044) and 72.3% from the free throw line. They had an average of 72.0 points per contest (279th in D-1) while connecting on 40.2% from the field.

When they were on the defensive end, the Keydets were able to force 11.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and they drew 15.8 personal fouls. They relinquished 35.1% on shots from distance and they ranked 330th in D-1 in points per game allowed (80.0). The Keydets defensively gave up a shooting percentage of 46.4% (899 of 1,937) and they relinquished 40.4 rebounds per contest as a team. They were ranked 356th in D-1 in giving up assists to their opponents with 564 surrendered throughout last year.

In their last game, the SMU Mustangs took home the win by a final score of 85-72 when they played Southern. The Mustangs were able to collect 23 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards for a total of 32 in this matchup. They gave up possession of the ball 21 times, while getting 11 steals in this matchup. Southern had 27 personal fouls for this contest which took the Mustangs to the free throw line for 40 tries. They were able to convert 32 of them for a rate of 80.0%. Pertaining to 3-point attempts, SMU converted 7 of 17 attempts (41.2%). At the conclusion of this game, the Mustangs finished the game shooting 23 for 45 from the field which had them at 51.1%. The Mustangs allowed Southern to convert 26 of their 59 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 44.1% in the game. They shot 38.1% from 3-point land by hitting 8 out of 21 and walked away from this one shooting 12 of 15 from the free throw line (80.0%). When it comes to rebounds, SMU allowed Southern to pull down 25 in all (8 on the offensive glass).

Jakub Szumert pitched in for the Mustangs in the matchup. He buried 5 of 6 in the game for a field goal percentage of 83.3%, and added 7 rebounds. He had 24 points in his 31 minutes on the court and earned 2 assists for the contest.

SMU had a win-loss record of 20-14 last year. In terms of offensive execution, the Mustangs hit 49.0% from the floor, which was ranked 21st in D-1. SMU earned 2,858 points last season (84.1 per game) and they grabbed 37.6 rebounds per contest. Their rate of assisting teammates was at 16.9 times per game (31st in the country) and they gave up possession 11.1 times per game. The Mustangs were responsible for committing 17.0 fouls per contest while shooting 74.3% from the free throw line.

The SMU defense allowed 34.1% on 3-point shots (341 of 1001) and opponents connected on 71.7% of their free throw shots. They allowed 16.1 dimes and 34.1 total rebounds per game, ranking them 254th and 158th in the country. The Mustangs on defense were ranked 299th in D-1 in PPG allowed with 77.9. They were able to force 12.0 TO's every game and let teams shoot 43.5% from the field (133rd in Division 1).

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take VMI (+23.5)

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