Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Missouri State Bears Prediction, 3/5/2026 College Basketball Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Missouri State Bears

Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026

Location: Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, MO

TV: ESPN+

Great Southern Bank Arena is the location where the Missouri State Bears (13-16) will compete against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (18-11) on Thursday.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers stepped onto the hardwood against UTEP and went home with a win by a final score of 97-65 in their last game. Western Kentucky finished the game having earned a 59.3% field goal percentage (32 of 54) and converted 9 of their 20 3-pointers. At the free throw line, the Hilltoppers made 24 of their 28 attempts for a rate of 85.7%. When discussing rebounding, they earned 35 with 4 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 21 assists for this contest in addition to forcing the other team into 12 turnovers and earning 7 steals. Pertaining to the defense, Western Kentucky allowed 35.8% from the field on 19 of 53 shooting. UTEP recorded 10 dimes and had 6 steals in this contest. On top of that, UTEP grabbed 26 rebounds (8 offensive, 18 defensive), but didn't notch a rejection. UTEP walked away from this one shooting 65.5% at the free throw line by burying 19 of 29 shots. They also made 8 out of their 28 shots from 3-point range. With respect to personal fouls, the Hilltoppers finished with 20 and UTEP accumulated 21 personal fouls.

Grant Newell is a player who was a contributor in the game. He walked away with 25 points on 8 of 13 shooting. He was on the hardwood for 29 minutes and also pulled down 7 boards. He finished 61.5% from the field and also totaled 1 assist.

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Western Kentucky comes into this one with a mark of 18-11 on the year. They lose possession by turning the ball over 10.3 times per contest and as a team they are committing 19.9 fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Western Kentucky is collecting 39.7 boards per game and has tallied 395 assists this season, which is 246th in the country in terms of passing the rock. The Hilltoppers are shooting 34.1% on shots from beyond the arc (250 of 733) and 76.6% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 79.6 pts per game (99th in the nation) while shooting 41.3% from the field.

When they are on defense, the Hilltoppers are forcing 12.8 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 18.6 fouls. They rank 200th in college in allowing assists to their opponents with 409 surrendered this year. The Hilltoppers are giving up a field goal percentage of 42.4% (701 of 1,655) and they surrender 37.4 rebounds per game as a squad. They give up 33.3% on 3-point shots while they are 207th in D-1 in points per game allowed (74.5).

The last time they took the court, the Missouri State Bears took a loss by a score of 86-81 when they faced Sam Houston State. The Bears were able to corral 17 defensive boards and 8 offensive rebounds totaling 25 in this matchup. They also turned the ball over 8 times, while recording 5 steals for this game. Sam Houston State was called for 16 personal fouls for this game which took the Bears to the charity stripe for a total of 21 shots. They were able to convert 15 of the free throws for a rate of 71.4%. In the matter of three-point attempts, Missouri State made 6 of their 21 attempts (28.6%). In all, the Bears ended up shooting 30 out of 62 from the field which gave them a percentage of 48.4%. The Bears permitted Sam Houston State to convert 29 of their 58 tries from the field which gave them a rate of 50.0% for this contest. They shot 46.2% from downtown by connecting on 6 out of 13 and finished the game at 22 of 28 from the free throw line (78.6%). Regarding team rebounding, Missouri State allowed Sam Houston State to grab 31 in all (7 offensive).

Michael Osei-Bonsu was important for the Bears in the matchup. He racked up 24 points in his 27 minutes of playing time and tallied 1 assist in the matchup. He knocked down 10 of 15 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 66.7%, and added 5 rebounds.

Missouri State has a win-loss record of 13-16 for the year. The Bears are committing 17.9 fouls every game while shooting 68.0% from the free throw line. Their rate of earning assists is at 14.3 times per contest (153rd in college) and they turn it over 11.6 times per game. Missouri State has tallied 2,183 pts for the season (75.3 per contest) and they collect 35.3 boards per game. On the offensive side of the court, the Bears are connecting on 44.4% from the floor, which has them ranked 234th in college hoops.

The Bears are ranked 187th in D-1 in PPG surrendered with 73.9. They are forcing 11.9 TO's every game and have allowed teams to shoot 45.4% from the floor (257th in college hoops). The Missouri State defense gives up 34.6% on 3-pointers (202 of 583) and their opponents are knocking down 71.0% of their free throw shots. They have relinquished 13.0 assists and 33.7 rebounds every game, which is ranked 146th and 142nd in D-1.

Who will win tonight's NCAA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Missouri State

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