Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction, 10/4/2025 Soccer Pick, Tips and Odds

by Tony Sink - 10/1/2025

Game: Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Date: Saturday, October 4, 2025

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain

TV: ESPN+

Real Madrid (6-0-1) hosts Villarreal (5-1-1) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain on Saturday. Real Madrid are priced at -182 and the Submarino Amarillos are at +150. The over/under is 3. The goaltenders protecting the net will be Thibaut Courtois for Real Madrid and Luiz Lucio Reis Junior for Villarreal.

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The Meringues have a ranking of 2nd when talking about goals expected having 14.2, and the squad's expected goals against sit at 8.6. The Meringues have surrendered 8 goals while allowing 1.14 goals per 90, and the opposition have a total of 20 SoT against them. This team's difference in goals is currently at 8 by means of 16 goals put in the net and also 8 goals relinquished. They have earned 3 clean sheets, which has them at a % of 42.9% for the season. Real Madrid has a total of 12 SVs and have earned a SV percentage of 60.0% over the course of the season. Real Madrid has earned 12 yellow cards this year as well as 1 red card. So far this season, the club sports an average of 2.57 pts/match (18 pts) and also are 2nd in European soccer with 13 assists.

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Villarreal has accumulated 13 goals and this team's expected goals so far this season is currently at 12.3. The club's goals against per 90 minutes is currently at 0.71 with 14 saves, and they have accumulated 3 shut outs. This season, Villarreal CF has a save % of 75.0% (20 shots on target against), and have a ranking of 3rd in Big 5 soccer with 16 pts. Villarreal ranks 2nd when it comes to goals surrendered having 5, and the difference in goals sits at 8. Villarreal CF has recorded a shut out % of 42.9% so far this year in addition to 14 yellow card warnings. The Submarino Amarillos have put together an average of 2.3 pts/match while tallying 10 assists.

The man who will defend the goal for Real Madrid will be Thibaut Courtois. Courtois has played for a total of 39,746 mins and has 1,052 stops so far in his career. The keeper from Belgium has had 1,445 shots attempted at him in 444 career starting assignments. His goals allowed per 90 mins is 0.89 (394 goals allowed) and he holds a save % of 72.8%. Courtois (277-90-74 record in his career) has accounted for 189 shutouts, which leaves him with a 42.8%% clean sheet percentage.

Luiz Lucio Reis Junior will look after the goal for Villarreal. In his career, Reis Junior has conceded 22 goals while tallying 61 saves in 22 starting assignments. He has earned a save % of 72.6% and his clean sheet rate is currently 36.0%%. He has allowed 0.99 goals per 90 minutes while he holds a record of 13-5-4. Reis Junior has accumulated 8 clean sheets while seeing 84 shots against him in 1,998 career minutes.

Kylian Mbappe is one man who can be a force for Real Madrid. The forward from France has totaled 331 goals in 32,723 mins played. Mbappe has been a starter in 363 matches so far in his pro soccer career and he scores 0.91 goals per 90 mins. He has accounted for 110 assists while tallying 772 points in his pro soccer career.

Villarreal is being led onto the pitch by Georges Mikautadze, who should keep defenses up at night. The forward from Georgia has totaled 12,442 minutes while scoring 88 goals. He is currently averaging 0.64 goals per 90 and has started 138 outings during his career. He has 203 points in his career and has helped a teammate on a goal 27 times.

Who will win tonight's soccer game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Real Madrid (+150)

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Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction, 10/4/2025 Soccer Pick, Tips and Odds

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