St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, 5/3/2025 Soccer Pick, Tips and Odds

by Tony Sink - 4/29/2025

Game: St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart

Date: Saturday, May 3, 2025

Location: Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg, Germany

TV: fuboTV

Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg, Germany is the site where VfB Stuttgart (11-8-12) will go up against St. Pauli (8-7-16) on Saturday. St. Pauli are priced at +132 and the Swambians are at -160. The over/under is set at 3. The goalies expected to start will be Nikola Vasilj for St. Pauli and Alexander Nubel for VfB Stuttgart.

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The Neighbourhood Kickers rank 80th for expected goals having 33.3, and the team's xGA sit at 39.7. Sport-Club St. Pauli has allowed 36 goals while allowing 1.16 G/90, and opponents have 121 SoT against them. Their differential on goals is -10 by 26 goals notched and 36 goals surrendered. They are sitting with 9 clean sheets, giving them a % of 29.0% for the year. St. Pauli has amassed 83 SVs and they also are the owners of a save% of 70.2% so far this year. St. Pauli has a total of 45 yellow cards on the year and also 2 red cards. For the season, the team averages 1.00 pts per match (31 points) and they also sit at 79th among Big 5 teams with 21 assists.

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Stuttgart has compiled 56 goals and the squad's goals expected over the course of the season is sitting at 53.2. The team's goals against per 90 is at 1.65 with 79 saves, and they have tallied 5 shutouts. This season, Stuttgart has a save percentage of 60.8% (130 SoTA), and they also sit at 55th in European soccer with 41 points. Stuttgart ranks 72nd for goals surrendered having 51, and their difference in goals is at 5. VfB has recorded a clean sheet rate of 16.1% for the season and 68 yellow card warnings. The Swambians have put together an average of 1.3 pts/match while accumulating 40 assists and 5 red cards.

The man protecting the net for St. Pauli is Nikola Vasilj. Vasilj has been on the pitch for 2,790 minutes and has 83 stops so far in his pro soccer career. The goalkeeper from Bosnia has faced 121 shots tried against him in 31 career starts. His GA/90 is 1.16 (36 goals allowed) and he has earned a save percentage of 68.6%. Vasilj (8-7-16 record in his career) has earned 9 shutouts, which leaves him with a 29.0%% shutout percentage.

Alexander Nubel will be looking after the net for Stuttgart. So far in his career, Nubel has allowed 256 goals while tallying 534 stops in 182 starting assignments. He has earned a save percentage of 68.5% and his shutout rate is currently 25.3%%. He has conceded 1.41 goals per 90 mins while holding a record of 82-44-56. Nubel has accumulated 46 clean sheets and has defended 780 shots against him in 16,369 minutes in his career.

Morgan Guilavogui is a member of the side who can make a noticable difference for St. Pauli. The forward from Guinea has earned 39 goals in 7,361 mins played. Guilavogui has been in the starting lineup in 78 games so far in his pro soccer career and scores 0.48 goals per 90. He has totaled 11 assists while tallying 89 pts so far in his career.

Stuttgart has a guy in Ermedin Demirovic, who opposing coaches will have to gameplan for in this fixture. He has accumulated 164 points thus far in his career and has helped a teammate on a goal 32 times. The forward born in Bosnia has totaled 14,232 professional minutes while scoring 66 goals. He scores 0.42 goals per 90 and has started 163 contests during his career.

Who will win tonight's soccer game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take VfB Stuttgart (+132)

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Pick:	DRAW (+230)
Start:	May 3, 2025 @ 12:30 AM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Comp Soccer pick from Doc’s Sports for Saturday: Spanish LaLiga Take Las Palmas/Valencia DRAW (+230) (12:30 p.m. EST, Saturday May 3) Valencia are the stronger side but they haven’t had the winning touch lately. They are coming off consecutive draws, and we think this one has a great chance to end up at a stalemate, and this is a great price for the draw. As of this writing, the under on total goals is juiced at -130 at 2.5, so a low scoring match is expected and we agree. So we have a couple chances at 0-0 or 1-1 for the under if it is indeed a low scoring match. Las Palmas has a single goal in their last two matches, and Valencia have scored one goal in three straight matches. We also like to target the draw in a likely low scoring match when the stronger team is the road side, and that is the case here on Saturday. Valencia have the second highest draw rate in LaLiga, as more than a third of their matches have ended tied. Again, nice value here and we think this one has a great chance to cash at a hefty price. Read More Read Less

St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, 5/3/2025 Soccer Pick, Tips and Odds

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