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Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction, 10/28/2026 Soccer Pick, Tips and Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 10/26/2026

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Game: Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze, Italy

TV: Paramount+, DAZN

Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze, Italy is the site where Atalanta (3-1-4) will compete against Fiorentina (1-1-6) on Wednesday. Fiorentina are priced at +106 while The Goddess open -128. The over/under is set at 3. The goalies protecting the net will be David de Gea for Fiorentina and Marco Carnesecchi for Atalanta.

soccer picks Mario Pasalic Atalanta predictions best bet odds

ACF Fiorentina has surrendered 19 goals while relinquishing 2.38 goals per 90, and opponents have earned 49 SoT on them. They haven't earned a clean sheet this season. Fiorentina has earned 17 yellow cards over the course of the season. Over the course of the season, the club averages 0.50 points per fixture (4 pts) and rank 14th in Big 5 soccer with 6 assists. The Purples have a rank of 17th in relation to expected goals with 18.7, and the xGA sit at 22.5. Their differential on goals is currently at -10 with 9 goals accumulated as well as 19 goals relinquished. Fiorentina has tallied 30 saves and have a save% of 61.2% this season.

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Atalanta has totaled 14 goals and this team's goals expected on the season is at 18.4. Their goals against per 90 is currently at 1.88 in addition to 36 saves, and they have accumulated 1 clean sheet. Atalanta B.C. has a shut out percentage of 12.5% for the year as well as 7 yellow cards. The Goddess are sitting with an average of 1.3 pts/match while sitting with 10 assists and 2 red cards. For the year, Atalanta B.C. has a save rate of 70.6% (51 shots on target against), and they also are ranked 11th among European teams with 10 points. Atalanta sits at 14th when it comes to goals surrendered having 15, and the goal differential is sitting at -1.

The guy who will defend the goal for Fiorentina will be David de Gea. de Gea has defended the goal for 62,608 mins and has earned 1,955 stops so far in his career. The keeper from Spain has had 2,734 shots attempted at him in 693 starts. His goals allowed per 90 minutes is 1.13 (783 total goals surrendered) and he has earned a save percentage of 71.5%. de Gea (348-157-187 record in his career) has totaled 228 clean sheets, which leaves him with a 32.8%% shutout rate.

Marco Carnesecchi will be looking after the goal for Atalanta. During his professional soccer career, Carnesecchi has given up 307 goals and has 745 saves in 253 starts. He is the owner of a save % of 71.1% and his shutout rate is currently at 28.8%%. He has allowed 1.21 goals per 90 mins while he holds a record of 108-69-76. Carnesecchi has recorded 73 shutouts while defending 1,048 shots attempted against him in 22,779 career minutes.

Mateo Pellegrino is one member of the squad who can make a noticable difference for Fiorentina. The forward from Argentina has totaled 32 goals in 8,106 mins. Pellegrino has been in the starting lineup in 87 contests so far in his career while scoring 0.36 G/90. He has totaled 4 assists while earning 68 pts during his soccer career.

Atalanta has a guy in Mario Pasalic, who the defense is sure to gameplan for in this matchup. The midfielder hailing from Croatia has been on the pitch for 28,919 professional minutes while scoring 94 goals. He is currently averaging 0.29 G/90 and has started 327 matches during his pro soccer career. He has 236 pts during his career and has helped on a goal 48 times.

Who will win tonight's soccer game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Fiorentina (-128)

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