Albert Ramos vs Roger Federer ATP Shanghai Picks 10/8/2019

Albert Ramos vs Roger Federer ATP Shanghai

5.30 am EST, 8th October 2019

Shanghai, China

Hard courts

Albert Ramos is exceeding expectations on this Asian hard-court swing. A couple of weeks ago, he got into the semifinals of the tournament in Zhuhai, after eliminating some really good players in the process. He defeated Yoshito Nishioka, Gael Monfils, and Miomir Kecmanovic without giving away a set, before losing to Mannarino. In the first round of Shanghai yesterday, he won vs Marin Cilic pretty easily. Still, I wouldn't be too sure that he can repeat that run from couple of weeks ago. Cilic is in dreadful form and Ramos took advantage of it. These playing conditions are extremely fast and don't really suit Spaniard's game as well as the one in Zhuhai, which were much slower. But despite that, he had some solid appearances at this event in the past, QF in 2017 being his personal best. He is holding a 6-6 record at this event.

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His next opponent also achieved his best result in the 2017 edition of Shanghai Masters. It was the year when Roger Federer won the tournament for the second time in his career, after claiming his first title in 2014. He is 21-5 in this tournament.

The second part of the season was not great for Roger. After losing that thriller in the finals of Wimbledon, he missed out on a chance to increase his lead when it comes to Grand Slam wins. Novak Djokovic retired at the US Open and the draw opened up nicely for Federer, but he was caught with his guard down vs Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals. We'll see how motivated he'll be for this last stretch of the season, after some disappointing losses in Grand Slams.

Matchup

H2H record between these two might surprise some people. Currently, they are tied at one win each. The interesting part is that Ramos didn't get his win on clay court as most of us would have guessed. It was right here in Shanghai! It was the 2nd round of the 2015 tournament when Ramos managed to upset the Federer.

I can't really recall how he did it and in what kind of form/situations the players were back then. But looking at this matchup, Federer should have a clear edge on such fast hard courts like these in Shanghai. Ramos does most of his damage when he has enough time to hit his forehand and dictate the rallies from the middle, using some great ball placement to construct the points. But when an opponent can inject some pace into the rally, he can't get that the depth on his groundstrokes consistently. He is not a great counter-puncher and also not a great athlete if you can get him on the move. I believe Federer can do all these things really well.

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Betting odds & prediction

As expected, Roger is a massive favorite in this one. They lined him up at -5, while the total is sitting at 20.5 He needs a really good performance in order to cover these numbers. Getting 3 breaks in such fast conditions will be the most challenging part, even against a player like Ramos, that doesn't have a big serve. As I mentioned above, I think the matchup in these type of conditions favors the Swiss player, but there is also a possibility that he will not be as sharp for these end of the year Masters. It's well known that he is after the Grand Slams at this point in his career, so I wouldn't be surprised if he takes it easy until the Australian Open.

Pick: over 20.5 games (-110)

Read more articles by Josh Schonwald