Danil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov US Open Picks 9/6/2019
Danil Medvedev vs Grigor Dimitrov
4 pm EST, 6th September 2019
New York, NY (USA)
Most of us expected to see Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer semifinal, but in the end, neither of them got to this stage of the competition. World No.1 had to retire in his 4th round match vs Stan Wawrinka, after repeated issues with his shoulder. While Federer got eliminated in quarterfinals by Grigor Dimitrov.
Bad play or poor form was not the reason why some of us are surprised to see Medvedev here. He played great throughout the entire American hard court swing. But in this tournament, he really struggled with his fitness and was on the verge of withdrawing from the tournament on a couple of occasions. He had an awful outing vs Hugo Dellien in the second round and barely got through. Then struggled physically in all of his last three matches vs Lopez, Koepfer, and Wawrinka. He got into it with the crowd which was mostly cheering for his opponents. His post-match interviews on the court were hilarious because he was trolling the crowd, thanking them for all the energy that helped him win the match. In retrospect, booing did help him. For example, he was very close to retiring when he was 6-3 and 2-0 down vs Koepfer, but he found motivation in everybody being against him and fought till the end, just to deny them the satisfaction of seeing him lose. He had issues with his shoulder and quadriceps in the last match. We'll see if those got any better with 3 days of rest before the semifinal bout.
Seeing Grigor Dimitrov at this stage of the tournament is quite shocking. He had a terrible season thus far. Slid all the way to the 78th place in the rankings. He had a losing record with 12-15. Made multiple changes in his coaching staff, hoping that might jumpstart his season, but unfortunately nothing worked. And then all of a sudden, he starts playing some decent tennis in the US Open. Gets a little bit lucky with the Coric's withdrawal in the second round. Surprisingly defeats ascending De Minaur in straight sets and then gets one of the biggest wins of his career. Earlier, he was nicknamed "Baby Fed" due to his playing style that is very similar to Federer's. He played Roger 7 times before, in times when he was in way better form than now, and never won. Finally did it in his 8th attempt, fighting back from being 1-2 down in sets.
When we talk about matchups, playing conditions play a very big part when analyzing those. The weather was an important part in the last 10 days in New York because it was constantly changing and forcing players to adapt. There were a few rainy days when the organizers had to close the roof on their two biggest stadiums and create indoor conditions, which was very helpful to some players with more aggressive playing styles.
Tomorrow, the possibility of rain is about 30%. If the roof closes, Dimitrov will have some more chances to stay in the match. But if the stadiums stay open, at only 22 degrees Celcius and 60% humidity, he'll have a very tough job hitting through a solid baseliner like Medvedev.
Betting odds & prediction
Medvedev opened as -200 favorite, but some money came in on the underdog. I believe that is solely because of Danil's problems with injuries in this tournament. But with 3 days of rest, I believe he'll feel much better. Motivated by the opportunity to play in his first-ever Grand Slam final will give him the reason to fight through any problems as he did in some previous matches. With the roof staying open, he is a massive favorite to win this one IMHO, because Dimitrov simply can't hit through him in those conditions.
Pick: Danil Medvedev -2.5 (-114)
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