David Goffin vs Radu Albot ATP Picks - 6/19/2019
David Goffin vs Radu Albot
4 am EST, 19th June 2019
ATP Halle, Germany
David Goffin suffered a disappointing loss last week in Hertogenbosch. He was set and a break up vs Adrian Mannarino in quarterfinals. That lead slipped out of his hands and his opponent went to win the whole thing in the end. That one probably hurt quite a bit, because it was a pretty wide open field and he would probably be a clear favorite for the title if he'd managed to keep that lead. But, he bounced right back with his first-round win in Halle. And what a win it was. He stormed past Guido Pella, conceding only 2 games in the entire match and getting the job done in well under an hour. His stats were obviously pretty impressive in such a comprehensive win, serving up 9 aces with no double faults. Winning 78% of the points behind the serve and not facing any break points. Returning stats were maybe even more impressive because you just don't often see too many players, winning more than half of the points when returning on the grass. If he continues to play like this, he is on the right path to improve his16-17 lifetime record on this surface and 2-2 at this event.
He'll play Radu Albot in the second round. A player from Moldova, who is not as recognized among the casual tennis fans. He is somewhat of a late bloomer, who spent most of the recent year on the edge of top 100, jumping around from ATP to challenger tour and back. But this year, he is playing tennis of his life. 20-12 YTD record surpasses his lifetime win rate by quite a margin. He won his first tournament this year in Delray Beach as well and cracked top 50 (currently No. 41). He still doesn't get much love from the betting market and is often undervalued. Especially in these faster conditions that suit his game really well. In the first round, he came back from one set down vs grass court specialist Matthew Ebden. Even in that first set that he lost, he was probably the better player, but couldn't get the finish. Stayed composed, knew that he was the better player on the court and turned it completely around.
As I mentioned already, faster conditions really fit Albot's game like a glove. Despite not being the biggest guy on the tour, his serve should not be underestimated. But most importantly, he has great reactions when returning the ball, putting high % of serves back in play and not allowing many free points to his opponent. During rallies, he has no problems with the low bounce. Takes the ball on the rise, uses the pace of the court well. Basically, everything you need to play solid grass court tennis.
The only problem for him is that Goffin's style has the ability to play around his strengths, where he's not relying that heavily on his first serve for example. But even during the rallies, I am sure Albot will hold his ground and make this one way more interesting than some would expect.
Betting odds & prediction
Goffin is dominating the H2H between them so far, but both matches were played in 2017 when Albot was half the player he's at the moment. Not surprised with Radu once again being overlooked by the linemakers, who opened him as +200 underdog. There is a lot of value with him in this spot vs Goffin who was not convincing lately. Big win over Pella was nice, but Argentine is not really someone who would enjoy playing on grass. Getting anything more then +150 with Albot here is a gift. Wouldn't mind taking couple of games here either, in case of a close contest
Tony's Pick: Radu Albot +182
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