Jannik Sinner vs Nicolas Jarry ATP Picks & Predictions - 6/11/2019
Jannik Sinner vs Nicolas Jarry
4 am EST, 11th June 2019
ATP Hertogenbosch, Netherlands
Italian wonderkid Jannik Sinner is not showing signs of slowing down and is winning the "breakout player of the year" award with a landslide. He ended last year ranked outside of top 750. Stormed onto the challenger tour scene in the begining of 2019 and moved up more then 500 places in the ATP rankings, being only 17-years of age while doing so! His eruption point was Bergamo challenger in February, where he took out top tier challenger competition one after another, displaying a very attractive and powerful version of tennis. Involving such a young player, you will usually see a big decline after such an achivment, but it didn't happen with Sinner. He proceeded to win at challenger and ITF level, accumulating 29-10 YTD record to this point. He even got a taste of the main tour in Budapest and Rome showing that he can compete there already, beating a player like Steve Johnson. That is why it was no big surprise seeing him getting through the qualifying rounds in this tournament, earning his spot in the main draw. Fighting from a set behind against Lacko was quite an acomplishment. Slovak is a very tough grass court opponent. Followed it up with a comprehensive win over Fabianno to seal the deal.
Nicolas Jarry is someone that might put some fear into his opponent when getting a first taste of the power behind his shots. But interestingly enough, that power is not really helping him in faster conditions, but often backfires on him. It gives him an edge on clay because not many players possess enough pace on their forehand to penetrate through the opponent's defense, while he does. In faster conditions, he is not comfortable with all the pace that the playing conditions are offering. His timing will be off many times and he'll be struggling to control all that power and hit many of his groundstrokes long. Looking at his body of work on grass courts, there is not much data to start from, but it's obvious it is his least favorite surface. There are some wins there, but mostly versus players that he should be winning against with his left hand tied behind his back, no matter what surface we're talking about. Only win worth mentioning was in the first round of Wimbledon last year over Krajinovic. All the other relevant matches he lost.
Obviously, these two guys have never met before, since this is Sinner's 3rd ATP tournament in his career. So we will have to visualize how this one plays out on the grass court, considering all the informations that we have. The fact is that both of these guys have a big serve . I don't see either of them offering too many break points to his opponent. Match will probably be decided in a couple of key points and the one being more clutch, will take away the victory.
Betting odds & prediction
Nicolas Jarry was opened as a favorite, which is no surprise at all. But the linemakers were very careful about it, pricing him up at only -150. They obviously don't want to give too much reward to Sinner's bandwagon following. In my opinion, the ML odds are about right. But the total seems to be off. Moneyline odds are telling us that the bookmakers and the market have a lot of respect for young Italian and that they don't believe Jarry is going to have an easy job here. Combine that with two big serves in a very fast pace playing environment and you have a match made in heaven for an over bet. 22.5 that is available at the moment is simply too low and I expect it to move up at least half point until the game-time.
Guy's Pick: over 22.5 (-110)
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