Matteo Berrettini vs David Goffin ATP Picks & Predictions - 6/22/2019
Matteo Berrettini vs David Goffin
4 am EST, 22nd June 2019
ATP Halle, Germany
It seemed like Matteo Berrettini was cooling down earlier this week, after being scorching hot last week in Stuttgart where he won the title. He did win in straight sets vs Basilashvili in the first round but had to work harder than expected for that win. In the second round, it was even tougher, when he had to fight from a set down vs Andreas Seppi. Savy veteran from Sudtirol also had very good strategy vs Matteo, keeping his ball as low as possible, so he wasn't able to attack properly with his forehand, where he likes to get his ball slightly higher to take a big swing at it. But, he rebounded really well after those two performances and played spectacular tennis vs Khachanov. He jumped right into a big 4-0 lead to start the match, while the Russian was still trying to find some rhythm. Karen did start to play much better eventually. Managed to put a lot of pressure on Italian throughout the second set, but Berrettini delivered his best shotmaking when it mattered the most and punched his ticket into the semifinals for the second week in a row. Ultimately he was a much better player in this one, winning 77% of points behind the serve and 39% when returning. Converted only 2 out of 11 break points, but it was still good enough for 2-0 win.
On the other side, Goffin's path to the semifinals was bit rockier. He managed to come from a set down in both 2nd round match and the quarterfinals. He struggled quite a bit vs Radu Albot but cracked the code at the end of the second set and then finished the job in the third. Similar was his match vs Zverev, the only difference was that he was an underdog in this one. Couldn't do much with Zverev playing on a high level in the beginning, but jumped on all the opportunities in the 2nd and 3rd set, winning his spot in the semis.
These two players never met before. But the prediction here is pretty straightforward. If Berrettini keeps playing on a level he produced these past two weeks, especially in the quarterfinals vs Khachanov. He should be able to get past Goffin without many problems. Belgium player is very quick around the court. He is solid from behind the baseline, can get most of the shots back in play, but he doesn't do it in a way to bother a prolific ball striker like Berrettini. He doesn't keep the ball low to the ground, but plays with more topspin, producing a higher bounce. Those are the shots that are right in Matteo's pocket and that is the most dangerous area to place the ball if you're his opponent.
Betting odds & prediction
The reason why is because when you give him enough time, he can take a full swing on that forehand side and hit through the court. Khachanov smartly tried to expose his backhand but it didn't work. Berrettini wisely added slice backhand into his grass court repertoire, where he keeps the bounce low and forces the opponent to go crosscourt into his forehand. He has been a moneymaking machine these last couple of weeks and I don't believe we should overthink this one. Goffin doesn't present a tough matchup for him and the odds are not good enough to be worth a risk. In this spot, rolling with the hot hand is the way to go.
Guy's Pick: Matteo Berrettini -1.5 (-118)
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