Matteo Berrettini vs Jordan Thompson US Open Picks 8/29/2019
Matteo Berrettini vs Jordan Thompson
10 am EST, 29th August 2019
New York, NY (USA)
Matteo Berrettini is having a really strong year so far. He won 30 out of his 45 matches and 2 titles to go with it. He exploded somewhere in the middle of April with that great run in Budapest and remained hot all the way through the grass-court season. He proved that he is becoming an all-around player that can win on any surface. He didn't start his American swing campaign very well by losing to Londero in Cincinnati. But he managed to bounce back from that loss rather quickly and eliminate Richard Gasquet in the first round here. It was not an easy task whatsoever, considering the way the French veteran played lately. Berrettini did it in 4 sets. He struggled to get it going at first. Gasquet looked like he is a better player, constantly getting himself in position to break opponents' serve, but whenever he got there, Matteo came up with a big first serve and saved all 5 breakpoints in the first set, which he eventually won. After that, he became more loose. Served up 18 aces and adding 61 winners, showcasing his big game.
n the second round, he is playing against Jordan Thompson who steamrolled Joao Sousa on Tuesday. Aussie was on the court for only two hours and won all three sets quite comfortably. He won 74% of all the points behind his serve and saved the lone break point that his opponent had. On the other hand, he kept Sousa to measly 58% in the same category and broke his serve 4 times from 14 attempts. The stat about the winners and unforced errors is the one that should be highlighted. We rarely see somebody like Joao Sousa committing 34 unforced errors and scoring only 17 winners. It means Thompson was extremely solid from the baseline, while Sousa ran out of ideas on how to get the ball past him.
After some great results on grass courts, he was only 2-6 in his last 8 matches. But looking more closely into those scores, it was either playing against very strong opponents or losing the match by a couple of points. In some cases both. That is why I was not that surprised by his good performance in the first round. He's been playing well for a while now.
These two guys played each other only once before. It was on the futures tour in 2015. They've both come a long way since then and improved as players. Speaking of improvements, I already wrote about Berrettini using his big game better and becoming a serious threat on faster surfaces. But Thompson also took his game on another level in 2019. His serve is more consistent than before and he can now hit his forehand deeper and with more power. He was always someone who liked to use variety to construct the points, so adding a couple of reliable weapons to his repertoire made him a much better player.
Betting odds & prediction
Berrettini opened as -185 favorite and he is still in that neighborhood. I expected him to be the public's favorite in this matchup, after all the success this year and showing that he's still in very good form by beating Richard Gasquet. But the line is not reflecting that. Anyway, I like Thompson at this current price. He is flying under the radar and is not getting noticed by the market. This is a pretty even matchup that could go either way. I am expecting a close match and Thompson covering the spread.
Pick: Jordan Thompson +3.5 (+100)
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