Novak Djokovic vs. Pablo Carreno Busta Cincinnati Open Picks 8/15/2019

Novak Djokovic vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

10 am EST, 15th August 2019

Cincinnati, Ohio (USA)

Hard courts

As mentioned in some previous articles, the top quarter of the draw is observed with an unusual level of thrill, by most of the tennis fans. Reason for that is the possible Djokovic vs Kyrgios matchup in the quarterfinals. They haven't played since Aussie expressed how much he dislikes the Serb while being guest in one of the podcasts. There is some obvious tension between them, even though Djokovic tried to downplay everything. But even though his response was calm and professional, I'm sure he would be extremely motivated to teach Nick a lesson on the court and show him who's the boss around here. Similar to what Nadal did in Wimbledon. But, that might not be that easy. Kyrgios is on fire lately. He won the tournament in Washington and continued his winning streak by eliminating Lorenzo Sonego in the first round here in Cincinnati. Also, his game is suited perfectly for these fast courts. He achieved his best results in the Masters series tournament here in 2017, when he lost in the finals to Grigor Dimitrov. But enough about Kyrgios for now. Djokovic will meet another player in the next round. Yesterday he eliminated Sam Querrey in straight sets, even though American came out very aggressive and jumped into an early lead. It took a couple of games for Novak to find his usual level and from there on, he controlled Querrey's big game with ease and cruised to a comprehensive win.

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On paper, he'll face an easier opponent in the round of 16. Pablo Carreno Busta is a very solid player, but his skill set can be best put to use on clay courts. He did improve on other surfaces in the past couple of years and became a more all-around player, but clay courts are still his home. He was not very active since the clay season ended. This is his first tournament on the American hard court swing. He defeated Gilles Simon in straight sets in the first round and then shocked Isner in the second. But Novak is somebody that presents a challenge on a completely different level and I'm not sure the Spaniard can do much about it in playing conditions like these.

Matchup

They faced each other twice so far. Both times it was in Monte Carlo on clay and both times Djokovic won. He has a significant advantage over Pablo here. Spaniard is someone that is very solid from the back of the court, but the problem for him in this situation is that Novak can do everything better than him. Simply, there is nothing that Carreno Busta can throw at him here. There are not many ways to beat Djokovic. Opponents could keep ti close with extremely high-level serving, or a gameplan involving a wide range of shots that would constantly change the rhythm during the point and maybe throw Novak off.

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Betting odds & prediction

But that is not something Carreno Busta is good at. He is a very conservative player that does basic things well, but as I said already, not good enough to beat a player like Nole. There are not many people that are running to the window with the Carreno Busta ticket, which is one of the reasons why you'll have to pay a premium on Djokovic in this match. But I'm pretty confident he is so much better here, that he can cover even some higher spreads. Speaking of those lines, they are sitting at -5.5 and 19.5 right now. Taking the under on the later, because I don't think Pablo can serve it out and push the sets into the distance. Nole is going to drag him into deep waters and prove his superiority.

Pick: under 19.5 games (-110)

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