Roger Federer vs Matteo Berrettini ATP Picks & Predictions - 7/8/2019
Roger Federer vs Matteo Berrettini
10:30 am EST, 8th July 2019
After a day off in Wimbledon, we have 4th round matches scheduled on Monday. There are more then a couple that are potentially very exciting. Just to name a few, Benoit Paire playing very mature in this tournament and taking on Bautista-Agut who's been clearing everybody out of his way so far. Sam Querrey continuing his dominance on grass courts and expected to find his way into the quarterfinals, but he has to be cautious versus his countryman Tennys Sandgren who already has a couple of big upsets under his belt. "Giant killer" Guido Pella will try to stop another big server in his tracks, after shockingly getting past Kevin Anderson in the previous round. Kukushkin was a serious contender to steal that nickname by eliminating Isner and Struff. He will play against a slightly different opponent this time in Kei Nishikori. Goffin vs Verdasco should be a good one as well.
But the most interesting match of the day in my opinion and the one I'm writing about in this article is Roger Federer vs Matteo Berrettini. Roger is a known commodity, while Berrettini played on a very high level since the start of the grass court season, but hasn't really been tested by any Top 10 guys. I am eager to see his ability when some of the greatest are on the other side of the net. Last week he wasn't as convincing as in Halle or Stuttgart. He had a couple of bumpy stretches, where he lost set to Bedene and played a 5 setter vs Schwartzman on Saturday. He saved 3 match points in the 4th set of that one, but I am not holding that against him that much. Schwartzman stepped up his grass court game in the last couple of weeks and performed at his absolute best in this one. They were rallying a lot and Berrettini had to come up with great shots, again and again, to come out on top. He succeeded and punched his ticket into the second week.
On the other side, Roger started slowly in his first round match, losing the first set to Lloyd Harris. But since then, he is on a 9 set winning streak. It's true that he had a cupcake draw with Harris, Clarke, and Pouille. But he arrived at Wimbledon with Halle title in his bag, so we can say that his form is quite ok at the moment.
They never played against each other, so it remains to be seen if the opportunity of playing Federer at Center court will prove out to be too big for Berrettini. To me, he never came across as someone that will shy away from a big moment. Actually, he is pretty clutch in crucial moments of the match, which can be an indication of him being solid in the mental part of the game. When it comes to his game overall, I don't see Federer dominating him in many segments. He is a very good server. He has a booming forehand. He can rally for days without committing errors and he will not be bothered by Fed's backhand slice, considering he's got a mean one as well.
Betting odds & prediction
Looking at the Italian being almost 7 to 1 underdog, I can't think of anything else but him being underrated in this situation. In my opinion, it's fair to make a comparison with Federer's previous match, where he was favored in the same range against Pouille, who is nowhere near as good of a player as Berrettini at the moment. The fact that he needed 4 and a half hours to put away Schwartzman was factored in too heavily by the market. He was not playing bad tennis in that match and he had an entire day to rest on Sunday and get his body ready for the duel vs Federer.
Guy's Pick: Matteo Berrettini +2.5 sets (-104)
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