Christian Garin vs Reilly Opelka Picks, Predictions ATP Basel Odds 10/22/2019
Christian Garin vs Reilly Opelka
8.30 am EST, 22nd October 2019
Hard courts (Indoor)
Both of these two players came to Basel with a first-round loss from last week. Garin participated at VTB Kremlin Cup in Moscow, where he lost to Andreas Seppi after three very close sets. He was a set up. but lost both second and the third in a tie-break. His current form is not all that much to talk about. But he is having a very solid season so far with 28-21 record and 2 titles. Both on clay courts in Munich and Houston respectively. That is also the surface where he had most of the success so far in his career. But, there are some elements in his game around which he could build on and become a more versatile all-court player. Looking at his earlier results, he actually had a better win percentage on hard courts than on clay, while playing on the challenger circuit. He never played at this event before, but has a decent indoor record this year (5-3)
On the other side, Reilly Opelka is also someone who is having a breakout season, during which he also won his maiden title. It happened earlier this year in New York. Conditions there were quite similar to those in Basel. Fast indoor courts that suit the player with a big game. And Opelka definitely fits that mold. Standing at 6'11" he is one of the tallest players on the tour. Serve is a crucial part of his game, but he is also deceptively agile for a man of his size and can play from behind the baseline as well.
After losing in semifinals of Tokyo a couple of weeks ago, we could see a noticeable drop in his performance last couple of weeks. First, he lost in the second round of Shanghai to Roberto Bautista Agut. Although a loss to such a good player doesn't seem alarming, Opelka's body language and attitude were. He was very negative. Not happy with his game and it happened again in Stockholm, where he lost to Travaglia in the first round. It seems like he is not in the best form at the moment.
They've met twice so far, splitting it to one win each. Opelka won at Savannah challenger, while Garin returned the favor at Roland Garros last year. But the conditions here will be completely different, comparing to those two previous matches. Indoor hard courts are usually pretty fast and should favor big-serving American.
But, it would not be wise to write off Christan Garin too early. He is quite underrated on faster surfaces. The market obviously views him as a clay courter, but that is not entirely true. He has a very crisp and compact swing on both wings that allow him to control the pace and use it really well when counter-punching. He moves well side to side and makes it difficult for his opponents to put the ball past him.
Betting odds & prediction
Opelka's serve is obviously a big weapon indoors. But during the rallies, he sometimes struggles to control his power and tends to overplay his groundstrokes. It is why I am tentative to trust him in this spot. The line opened around -235, moved around a bit and then came back to where it opened. At this price, it's obvious that the market is undervaluing Garin and is not aware of his abilities on hard courts. The total is currently at 23.5. Even though I'm not a fan of betting over when the line is this high, I believe there is some value to be found here. Considering how fast these courts are playing, having a dominant server involved and expecting the game to be pretty close, I think the line should be 25.
Pick: over 23.5 games (-105)
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