Fabio Fognini vs Karen Khachanov Picks, Predictions ATP Shanghai Odds 10/10/2019
Fabio Fognini vs Karen Khachanov
2 am EST, 10th October 2019
Fabio Fognini went through a rollercoaster in his previous match. He won the first set, but then allowed Andy Murray to take control over the match. Former world No.1 took advantage of that and got himself into a position to close out the match with his serve. Not only once, but twice! Fognini showed his resilience and broke Murray's serve both times and then completely dominated the tie-breaker in the final set.
Handshake at the end of the match was not the friendliest we've seen. Murray wasn't happy about a particular moment in the 11th game of the final set when Fognini shouted while the point was still being played. More precisely, when Murray tried to hit an easy volley to win the point. They exchanged some words at the changeover, but in the end, I don't believe that was a deciding factor. Both guys kept their cool after it and Fabio was simply the better player in the end.
On the other side, Khachanov's matches so far weren't nearly as exciting. Actually, as a 7th seed in the tournament, he only played one. It was pretty quick work for him against struggling Taylor Fritz. But in this match, the American actually played some solid tennis. But the problem he faced here was that he was playing a better version of himself. They have a similar playing style, but Karen was executing it better, which is why he was able to get the win in just under 70 minutes. Big-hitting from the baseline was the theme here. There was some serious heat on their groundstrokes and most often than not, Fritz was the one that couldn't handle it and made an error.
Good performance by Khachanov wasn't really that surprising. He was really good last week in Beijing already, when he lost in a close semifinal match to Dominic Thiem. He is having a very good Asian swing so far.
Speaking of his semifinal run in Beijing, Fognini was one of his opponents there. The Russian player defeated him in quarterfinals. I believe that Khachanov has an advantage here as well. Conditions are similarly fast and I think that favors him. He loves the fast courts because it benefits his big game. He is not a very good point constructor, but he doesn't really need to do that in these conditions. He can be dangerous enough with his great ball-striking, overwhelming his opponents with the pace of the ball. Fognini is a talented shotmaker, that in theory has enough skill to match Khachanov strike for strike. But the mental lapses that he'll have in almost every match can be deciding here because it's is very difficult to play from behind and expect to re-break often enough in faster playing conditions.
Betting odds & prediction
Odds are very similar to those from last week in Beijing. Khachanov is priced slightly under -200, with the spread being set at -3. Even though he lost the second set, Karen was able to cover this number thanks to Fabio's meltdown in the third. I believe that something like that is a possibility in this match as well, but I think that the Russian can win in straight sets this time around. He is simply feeling the ball really well at the moment and playing some high-level tennis. It will be difficult for Fognini to keep it up with Khachanov stride for stride, because of his inability to keep focus throughout the match.
Pick: Karen Khachanov -200
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