Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner Picks, Predictions Next Gen ATP Finals Odds 11/5/2019
Frances Tiafoe vs Jannik Sinner
3 pm EST, 5th November 2019
Hard courts (Indoor)
Next Gen ATP Finals. It's a fairly new competition, that was established in 2017 and features eight under-21 players with the best season behind them. It's held in Milano, Italy with a $1.4m prize pool and is also very interesting because it's played under a different set of rules, compared to those in the regular season. Matches are best of 5 sets, but sets are shorter. First player that gets 4 games wins the set. Players are also divided into two groups and will play each other in round robin system, before two from each group proceed to semifinals
The very first champion in 2017 was Hyeon Chung, while Stefanos Tsitsipas is defending the title from last year. The Greek player decided to forfeit his right to defend his title, because he withdrew from the tournament, despite being the first seed this year. Similar decision was made by Denis Shapovalov who played finals of Paris Masters couple days ago, while Felix Auger Aliassime is injured. All those withdrawals helped Kecmanovic, Mikael Ymer and Davidovich Fokina to get into the draw.
We're talking Group B matchup here between American Frances Tiafoe and Jannik Sinner from Italy. Tiafoe already has some experience with this tournament, after already competing in it last year. He was placed last in his group with one win and two losses. But playing under these unique rules should give him some advantage over opponents who haven't experienced this playing environment yet.
He will face Jannik Sinner who exploded onto the scene this year. 18-year old Italian came out of nowhere earlier this season. Had a lot of success on the challenger tour and then effortlessly transitioned to the ATP tour where he showed that he can compete with the big boys. He got into the tournament with a wildcard that is given every year to one of the Italian players. He should have a lot of support from the home crowd in this tournament.
They already met once before and it was not that long ago. A couple of weeks back, they played in quarterfinals of Antwerp. Sinner came out on top in that one, winning the match in three sets. Playing conditions there were pretty fast and it was very difficult for Tiafoe to find rhythm there. Courts in Milano were pretty standard last year, so if they haven't changed them Tiafoe should be more comfortable here.
Still, it will be a difficult challenge for him. Sinner plays very aggressive, hits the ball flat from both sides and generates a lot of power effortlessly. I believe that he'll try to put pressure on Tiafoe's forehand side. Frances has a pretty unique swing on that side and can produce a bunch of unforced errors with that shot if he's rushed into it.
Betting odds & prediction
Betting options for this tournament are limited. Bookmakers are mostly offering only Moneyline betting on these matches because the scoring is different. The opener was pretty much even, but it steamed quite heavily towards Sinner. It is the move that was expected. Public bettors are often suffering from recency bias. Seeing that Jannik defeated Frances not so long ago and that he is also playing in front of his home crowd, convinced them that he is the right side here. In my opinion, the opening line was quite accurate. I think Tiafoe is overall still a slightly better player and when we factor in the home court, they should be priced evenly. I don't care too much about the result of their previous encounter. The match was pretty close and it was played in different conditions.
Pick: Frances Tiafoe +122
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