Matteo Berrettini vs Andrey Rublev Picks, Predictions ATP Vienna Odds 10/22/2019
Matteo Berrettini vs Andrey Rublev
8 am EST, 25th October 2019
Hard courts (Indoor)
Although Berrettini had two very close matches so far, he still looked very good on the court. We have to take into account that he didn't have the easiest draw. Kyle Edmund was struggling lately, but he is always an extremely dangerous opponent, whenever he can find some rhythm. He managed to do that in the first round, playing very aggressive tennis from behind the baseline and putting Matteo under a lot of pressure. After losing the first set, the Italian player answered the call, raised the level of his game and won the match from behind.
In the second round, he played a similar opponent in Grigor Dimitrov. He is also one of those guys that can put a lot of pressure with his ball-striking. Not as much with power, but by taking the ball early and pushing the pace that way. He also comes forward a lot and moves beautifully around the court, making it very difficult to put him away. Berrettini once again found the answers and won after two tie breaks.
In quarterfinals, he will play against Andrey Rublev, whose path to this stage of the tournament was a bit different. After winning in Moscow last week, he expected to meet Felix Auger Aliassime, who withdrew from the tournament at the last minute. As we often see in those situations with late subs, Rublev struggled against an opponent that he didn't expect to see on the other side of the net. Alexander Bublik is also very tricky to play against, with a big game, strong volleying and a lot of flair. Rublev needed 3rd set tie-break to break his resistance.
But luckily for him, he won his 2nd round match very comfortably. Combined with a long week in Moscow, another long match would probably result in fatigue catching up with him and his legs feeling heavy in the quarterfinals. He needed only 67 minutes to get by Hyeon Chung conceding only 6 games in the process.
These two guys have quite a history already. They've met 4 times before. Once as juniors and 3 times as pros. Rublev won their encounter at the 2014 Junior Championship in Wimbledon, while Berrettini won 2 out of 3 in the last three years. When it comes to matching up against each other, these two players have very different playing styles. Rublev is a scrappy counter-puncher who will run side to side and get a bunch of balls back in play. Berrettini, on the other hand, is someone who relies on his big weapons. Predominantly his serve and forehand. If he's feeling it, it's not much that his opponent can do.
Conditions are very important for determining who has an edge. Courts in Vienna seem to be on the slower side, comparing to other indoor hard tournaments. There is not much pace to work with, so the players that can generate power by themselves have the advantage.
Betting odds & prediction
Berrettini is definitely one of those players. He has great racket-head speed on the forehand side which helps him generate a lot of power and be the dominant player in the baseline exchanges. The line opened Berrettini -115 but was bet down to -140. I understand the move because Berrettini should be able to play the match on his own terms in these conditions, while Rublev played a bunch of matches in the last 10 days and might start feeling that. There is still some value left at the current price.
Pick: Matteo Berrettini -140
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