Roberto Bautista Agut vs Alex De Minaur Picks, Predictions ATP Paris Odds 10/30/2019
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Alex De Minaur
9 am EST, 30th October 2019
Hard courts (Indoor)
It is a very important match for Roberto Bautista Agut. It is the last chance to somehow get himself into the ATP Finals in London. Right now, he is in 9th place with 2530 points, while Berrettini is occupying the 8th place with 130 points more. Few other players are in the hunt as well. David Goffin, Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini and Diego Schwartzman still have mathematical chances and are hoping for a miracle in Paris.
After that big disappointment in Flushing Meadows when he got eliminated in the first round, Bautista Agut started to slow down a little bit. I don't know if he's losing breath after playing 60 matches this season, dealing with a minor injury or he's simply out of form. But for a player of his caliber, winning 5 out of his last 10 matches is unusual. For a Top 10 player, we will probably not find many events where he has losing records, but Paris Masters is one of those. He is 4-6 at the moment and has never won more than one match in the main draw. Just like last year, when he eliminated Steve Johnson in the first round, before getting eliminated by Grigor Dimitrov.
His opponent in this match will be Alex De Minaur. Young Aussie is not competing for the place in ATP Finals, but already guaranteed his spot in the Next Gen Finals that will be held next week in Milan. He already played there last year, losing the finals to Stefanos Tsitsipas. That tournament is held for selected 8 young players and he is definitely one of the favorites to win that tournament this year. Especially after a season, he had so far. 20-year old won 3 titles this year and reached another final just last week in Basel. He couldn't do much there against the great Roger Federer, who swept the entire competition in his hometown.
He doesn't have much experience in Paris since he played here only last year when he lost to Feliciano Lopez in the first round. This year, he already improved on that result by beating Laslo Djere in his first match.
I already mentioned "Demon's" 3 titles this year. One of those is pretty interesting when analyzing this match. I'm talking about the one in Zhuhai when he defeated Roberto Bautista Agut on his way to the throne. And it was not just a regular win, It was a beatdown. Alex won 6-2 6-2, which is a scoreline that we rarely see when Bautista is on the losing end. Spaniard is so solid that we rarely see him lose in such fashion.
But, De Minaur proved to be a very tricky matchup for him. Aussie is known for his court coverage and ability to play endless rallies from behind the baseline. It is something that Bautista likes to do as well. But it seems like De Minaur was beating him in his game, forcing him to be more aggressive and that is just not what Roberto usually does.
Betting odds & prediction
I can't see Bautista coming up with a plan B in this match. He is not a crafty player with many different weapons in his arsenal. He does some fundamental stuff but executes it on a high level. Unfortunately for him, De Minaur doesn't seem to have any problems matching up against that. The line opened De Minaur -105 but got steamed up to -125. Obviously, their most recent match played a huge role in that move, which is justified in my humble opinion. As I said, Bautista needs to think outside the box and play out of his comfort zone to win this match and I don't think he can pull it off.
Pick: Alex de Minaur -125
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