Miguel Baeza vs Takashi Sato Pick, 11/28/2020 Predictions UFC Vegas 15 Odds

Miguel Baeza vs Takashi Sato

UFC Vegas 15

UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, November 28, 2020

Miguel Baeza will enter the Octagon with Takashi Sato at UFC Vegas 15 on Saturday, November 28, 2020. The opener has Baeza priced at -160 while Sato is at +140.

Miguel "Caramel Thunder" Baeza walks into the Octagon with a mark of 9-0-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and comes in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 74". Takashi "Ten" Sato stands 5'10" and weighs 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 16-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 73". With respect to significant strikes, Miguel Baeza is connecting on 4.78 per minute while Takashi Sato connects on 3.94 significant strikes per min. Baeza is connecting on 56% of the significant strikes he attempts and Sato is connecting on 41%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Caramel Thunder" allows 4.67 significant strikes per min while "Ten" takes 5.10. Baeza also thwarts 44% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Sato stops 51% of them.

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In terms of wrestling, Miguel Baeza is not as effective of a grappler as he gets a takedown 0.54 times per 15 minutes. Baeza is finishing his takedown attempts on 33% of his tries and stopping 72% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Sato is taking his opponents down on 50% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 80% of the tries against him. Regarding subbing the opposition, Baeza is the more experienced of the two fighters by going for 1.1 finishes per 15 minutes while Sato tries 0.5 finishes per 3 rounds.

The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Miguel Baeza went up against Matt Brown and wound up taking home the victory by a punch to the head in round 2. Brown landed 33 of 61 total strikes that he let go. Baeza ended the night having landed 42 of 79 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Brown ended up landing 33 of 61, which gave him a rate of 54%. He finished the fight landing 25 of 51 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Baeza ended up landing 50% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 37 of 73. Out of those significant strikes, he was 21 of 54 pointed at the head. 63% of the significant strikes connected on by Brown and 78% of them landed by Baeza were thrown at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Takashi Sato, he fought Jason Witt and ended up winning this fight by a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Witt ended up landing 100% of his significant strikes at distance while Sato ended up landing 16% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Sato ended up landing 85% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 18 of 21. He connected on 18 of 21 significant strikes aimed at the head. Witt connected on 2 of 5 significant strikes in that fight. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 0 of 2 to the head. Relating to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Witt ended up connecting on 2 of 5 and Sato ended up connecting on 18 of 21 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Spike Carlyle faces off with Bill Algeo. Carlyle has a record of 9-2-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The switch fighter reaches 71". Algeo comes in at 6'0" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 13-5-0. The 31-year-old stretches 73". In terms of takedowns, Spike Carlyle takes his opponents to the mat 2.74 times per 3 rds and Bill Algeo is able to score a takedown 0.50 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Carlyle connects for an average of 3.47 strikes per minute and connecting on 60% of the strikes that he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Bill Algeo, who tags his opponent on 53% of the strikes that he throws and lands 7.87 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Anderson Dos Santos is set to square up against Martin Day. Day holds a career record of 8-4-0. The 32-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 73". Dos Santos stands 5'5" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 20-8-0. The 35-year-old has a reach of 70". Regarding wrestling, Martin Day is able to defend against 72% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the mat on 50% of his tries. Dos Santos is finishing his takedown tries on 20% of the tries he takes and is able to deflect 80% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Day is taking 3.99 strikes/min while he is connecting on 5.39 strikes/min. Dos Santos, moreover, takes 5.23 strikes/minute and dishes out 2.70 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Takashi Sato (+140)

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