Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz Pick, 11/20/2021 Predictions UFC Vegas 43 Odds

Pat Sabatini vs Tucker Lutz

UFC Vegas 43

UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, November 20, 2021

Pat Sabatini will enter the Octagon with Tucker Lutz at UFC Vegas 43 on Saturday, November 20, 2021. The opening moneyline has Sabatini priced at -140 while Lutz is at +120.

Pat Sabatini has a mark of 15-3-0. The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and stands 5'8". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Tucker "Top Gun" Lutz stands in at 5'8" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 12-1-0. The 27-year-old stretches 72". Regarding significant strikes, Pat Sabatini is landing 1.60 per minute while Tucker Lutz is connecting on 5.09 significant strikes per min. Sabatini connects on 50% of the significant strikes he tries and Lutz connects on 52%. When it comes to the fighter's defense, Sabatini absorbs 1.72 significant strikes per minute while "Top Gun" absorbs 3.67. Sabatini also stops 54% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Lutz prevents 45% of the shots thrown his way.

Concerning grappling, Pat Sabatini is the not as competent as a grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.89 times per 15 minutes. Sabatini is getting his opponent to the mat on 16% of the times he tries and stuffing 20% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Lutz is finishing his takedowns on 63% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 84% of the attempts against him. When it comes to submissions, Sabatini is the more apt fighter by attempting 2.7 subs per 3 rounds while Lutz goes for 0.3 subs per 3 rds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Pat Sabatini went up against Jamall Emmers and wound up getting the victory via a heel hook in round 1. Emmers ended up landing 12 of 17 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Sabatini ended the night having landed 1 of 9 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Emmers ended up landing 10 of 14, which gave him a rate of 71%. He landed 3 of 7 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Sabatini ended up landing 11% of his significant strikes by connecting on 1 of 9. Of those significant strikes, he was 1 of 9 aimed at the head. 80% of the significant strikes landed by Emmers and 100% of them landed by Sabatini were tallied at distance.

In the last fight for Tucker Lutz, he went up against Kevin Aguilar and wound up taking home the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Aguilar ended up landing 88% of his significant strikes at distance while Lutz ended up connecting on 91% of his significant strikes at distance. Lutz connected on 55% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 99 of 177. He ended up landing 59 of 131 significant strikes aimed at the head. Aguilar connected on 81 of 144 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 45 of 98 to the head. When discussing total strikes thrown in that contest, Aguilar was 132 of 196 while Lutz ended up connecting on 114 of 192 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Rafa Garcia faces off against Natan Levy. Garcia will be looking to add a win to his career record of 12-2-0. The 27-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Levy stands 5'9" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career record of 6-0-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 71". When it comes to grappling, Rafa Garcia gets a takedown 2.50 times per 15 minutes while Natan Levy gets a takedown 2.75 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Garcia connects for an average of 4.13 strikes per min and is connecting on 34% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Natan Levy, who is connecting on 60% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 1.65 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Qileng Aori is set to square up against Cody Durden. Durden will be looking to add a victory to his total of 11-3-1. The 30-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 67". Aori measures in at 5'7" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 18-8-0. The 28-year-old reaches 69". In terms of grappling, Cody Durden is thwarting 50% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is taking his opponents down on 26% of his tries. Aori is taking his opponents to the mat on 75% of his attempts and is able to defend against 80% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Durden is absorbing 3.93 strikes per minute while he dishes out 3.11 strikes/minute. Aori, in contrast, takes 12.60 strikes/min and dishes out 7.73 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Tucker Lutz (+120)

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