Raulian Paiva vs Sean O'Malley Pick, 12/11/2021 Predictions UFC 269 Odds

Raulian Paiva vs Sean O'Malley

UFC 269

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, December 11, 2021

Raulian Paiva will face off with Sean O'Malley at UFC 269 on Saturday, December 11, 2021. The odds have Paiva at +240 while O'Malley is at -305.

Raulian Paiva has a mark of 21-3-0. The 26-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 69". Sean "Sugar" O'Malley measures in at 5'11" and will fight at 135 lbs. The switch fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 14-1-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 72". Concerning significant strikes, Raulian Paiva is connecting on 4.24 per minute and Sean O'Malley is connecting on 8.25 significant strikes per minute. Paiva lands 43% of the significant strikes he tries while O'Malley is connecting on 62%. In terms of defending themselves, Paiva allows 4.90 significant strikes per minute while "Sugar" absorbs 3.59. Paiva also deflects 50% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while O'Malley deflects 65% of the strikes thrown his way.

In the wrestling category, Raulian Paiva is not as effective of a wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 0.62 times per 3 rounds. Paiva is finishing his takedown attempts on 27% of his tries and is stuffing 75% of all takedown tries against him. O'Malley is finishing his takedown attempts on 50% of the takedowns he attempts and is stopping 60% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. When it comes to sub attempts, Paiva is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.2 subs per 15 minutes while O'Malley goes for 0.6 subs per 15 minutes.

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In his last bout, Raulian Paiva fought Kyler Phillips and wound up getting the win by majority decision in round 3. Phillips ended up landing 95 of 155 total strikes attempted in that contest. Paiva walked away from this fight having landed 72 of 147 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Phillips landed 74 of 132, which means his percentage was 56%. He landed 62 of 115 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Paiva landed 43% of his significant strikes by sticking 51 of 117. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 37 of 96 to the head. 58% of the significant strikes landed by Phillips and 80% of them connected on by Paiva were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Sean O'Malley, he battled Kris Moutinho and took home the victory by a punch to the head in round 3. Moutinho landed 98% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and O'Malley landed 99% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. O'Malley connected on 72% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 230 of 318. He connected on 177 of 255 significant strikes aimed at the head. Moutinho ended up connecting on 70 of 218 significant strikes in that battle. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 39 of 168 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that fight, Moutinho connected on 70 of 218 while O'Malley ended up landing 230 of 318 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Josh Emmett goes up against Dan Ige. Emmett steps into the cage with a record of 16-2-0. The 36-year-old weighs 145 lbs and stands in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 70". Ige comes in at 5'7" and will fight at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 15-4-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 71". Regarding grappling, Josh Emmett gets a takedown 1.43 times per 3 rds and Dan Ige is able to score a takedown 1.38 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Emmett lands 4.32 strikes per min and connecting on 39% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Dan Ige, who is connecting on 46% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 3.82 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Dominick Cruz is set to clash with Pedro Munhoz. Munhoz comes into this bout with a record of 19-6-0. The 35-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 65". Cruz stands in at 5'8" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 23-3-0. The 36-year-old stretches 68". In the category of takedowns, Pedro Munhoz is stopping 80% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown tries on 21% of his tries. Cruz is finishing his takedown tries on 46% of the attempts he tries and defends against 83% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Munhoz takes 6.02 strikes/minute and he is connecting on 5.55 per minute. Cruz, in contrast, is absorbing 2.42 strikes/min and is dishing out 3.65 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Sean O'Malley (-305)

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