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Free Picks » UFC Picks » Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich Pick, 7/30/2022 Predictions UFC 277 Odds

Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich Pick, 7/30/2022 Predictions UFC 277 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 7/26/2022

ufc picks Sergei Pavlovich predictions best bet odds

Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich

UFC 277

American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

Saturday, July 30, 2022

Derrick Lewis will face off with Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 277 on Saturday, July 30, 2022. The odds have Lewis at -110 while Pavlovich is priced at -110.

Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis has a mark of 26-9-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old is fighting at 260 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 79". Sergei Pavlovich stands 6'3" and records a weight of 257 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 15-1-0. The 30-year-old stretches 84". Regarding significant strikes, Derrick Lewis connects on 2.56 per minute and Sergei Pavlovich connects on 6.08 significant strikes per minute. Lewis is connecting on 50% of the significant strikes he tries while Pavlovich is landing 50%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "The Black Beast" allows 2.51 significant strikes per minute and Pavlovich absorbs 4.45. Lewis also stops 41% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Pavlovich is able to defend against 46% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

 

UFC 277 Derrick Lewis Sergei Pavlovich
Opening Odds -110 -110
Record 26-9-0 (1 NC) 15-1-0
Average Fight Time 9:22 2:55
Height 6'3" 6'3"
Weight 260 lbs 257 lbs
Reach 79" 84"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.56 6.08
Striking Accuracy 50% 50%

 

Concerning wrestling, Derrick Lewis is the more capable grappler as he is averaging a takedown 0.60 times per 3 rounds. Lewis is scoring a takedown on 28% of his attempts and is stopping 55% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Pavlovich is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of his takedown tries and is stuffing 66% of the tries against him. Regarding submission attempts, Lewis is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by going for 0.5 submissions per 15 minutes while Pavlovich goes for 0.8 submissions per 15 min.

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The last time he fought, Derrick Lewis faced Tai Tuivasa and ended up taking the loss via elbows to the head in round 2. Tuivasa landed 35 of 47 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Lewis walked away from this fight having landed 31 of 47 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Tuivasa landed 24 of 36, giving him a percentage of 66%. He landed 12 of 22 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Lewis landed 62% of his significant strikes by landing 27 of 43. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 24 of 39 aimed at the head. 33% of the significant strikes landed by Tuivasa and 40% of them landed by Lewis were tallied at a distance.

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In the last bout for Sergei Pavlovich, he battled Shamil Abdurakhimov and took home the win by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Abdurakhimov ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Pavlovich ended up connecting on 28% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Pavlovich ended up landing 44% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 21 of 47. He ended up landing 21 of 46 significant strikes aimed at the head. Abdurakhimov ended up connecting on 17 of 34 significant strikes in that contest. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up landing 4 of 16 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Abdurakhimov ended up connecting on 17 of 34 and Pavlovich ended up connecting on 22 of 48 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Alexandre Pantoja squares up in the Octagon against Alex Perez. Pantoja comes into this bout with a record of 24-5-0. The 32-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and measures 5'5". The orthodox fighter stretches 67". Perez stands in at 5'6" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 24-6-0. The 30-year-old reaches 65". When it comes to grappling, Alexandre Pantoja scores a takedown 1.26 times per 3 rds while Alex Perez gets a takedown 2.92 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Pantoja connects on 4.24 strikes/min and is landing 48% of the strikes that he throws. Joining him in the Octagon is Alex Perez, who tags his opponent on 47% of the strikes he has tried and connects for an average of 4.62 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Anthony Smith is set to go up against Magomed Ankalaev. Ankalaev looks to add a win to his career total of 17-1-0. The 30-year-old weighs 205 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 75". Smith stands 6'4" and weighs 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 36-16-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 76". When it comes to takedowns, Magomed Ankalaev stops 85% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is getting his opponent to the mat on 33% of his attempts. Smith is taking his opponents to the mat on 28% of his attempts and is able to deflect 48% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With regard to striking, Ankalaev is absorbing 2.13 strikes/min and he dishes out 3.49 strikes per min. Smith, on the other side, is taking 4.31 strikes/minute and is landing 3.03 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take Sergei Pavlovich (-110)

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