Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves Pick, 7/30/2022 Predictions UFC 277 Odds

Drew Dober vs Rafael Alves

UFC 277

American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX

Saturday, July 30, 2022

Drew Dober will enter the Octagon with Rafael Alves at UFC 277 on Saturday, July 30, 2022. The opening line has Dober priced at -205 while Alves is priced at +175.

Drew Dober steps into the Octagon with a record of 24-11-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old records a weight of 155 lbs and measures 5'8". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 70". Rafael "The Turn" Alves measures 5'8" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 20-10-0. The 31-year-old reaches 68". In terms of significant strikes, Drew Dober lands 4.40 per minute and Rafael Alves lands 2.10 significant strikes per minute. Dober is landing 40% of the significant strikes he throws and Alves lands 47%. Regarding defending in the cage, Dober takes 4.23 significant strikes per min and "The Turn" absorbs 3.56. Dober also stops 52% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Alves stops 58% of the shots thrown his way.

Regarding takedowns, Drew Dober is the more effective wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.80 times per 3 rds. Dober is finishing his takedown attempts on 17% of the times he tries and thwarting 53% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Alves is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of his takedown attempts and defending 60% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Dober is less apt at going for the finish by trying 0.1 subs per 15 min while Alves attempts 1.8 subs per 15 minutes.

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In his previous fight, Drew Dober went up against Terrance McKinney and got a win for the night by a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. McKinney landed 43 of 74 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Dober ended the night having landed 31 of 52 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, McKinney landed 36 of 61, which means his percentage was 59%. He landed 33 of 57 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Dober landed 45% of his significant strikes by connecting on 17 of 37. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 14 of 34 to the head. 41% of the significant strikes landed by McKinney and 35% of them connected on by Dober were done at distance.

In the last bout for Rafael Alves, he went up against Marc Diakiese and ended up getting the win via a guillotine choke in round 1. Diakiese ended up landing 100% of his significant strikes at distance while Alves landed 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Alves connected on 54% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 6 of 11. He connected on 3 of 8 significant strikes aimed at the head. Diakiese landed 3 of 13 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 0 of 7 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Diakiese ended up connecting on 3 of 13 while Alves ended up landing 6 of 11 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Nicolae Negumereanu goes up against Ihor Potieria. Negumereanu looks to add a victory to his career record of 12-1-0. The 27-year-old weighs 205 lbs and stands in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 78". Potieria comes in at 6'3" and is fighting at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 19-2-0. The 26-year-old has a reach of 75". In the grappling category, Nicolae Negumereanu is averaging a takedown 0.65 times per 15 minutes while Ihor Potieria takes his opponents to the mat 0.50 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Negumereanu connects for an average of 3.39 strikes/minute and is landing 39% out of all the strikes he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Ihor Potieria, who tags the opposition on 72% of the strikes he attempts and connects for an average of 4.89 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Blood Diamond is set to clash with Orion Cosce. Cosce looks to add a victory to his total of 7-1-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The switch fighter stretches 71". Diamond measures 5'11" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 3-1-0. The 34-year-old reaches 76". In the category of takedowns, Orion Cosce is able to curb 70% of his opponents' takedown tries and is getting his opponent to the mat on 42% of his attempts. Diamond is taking his opponents down on 15% of his attempts and is able to thwart 80% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Cosce is absorbing 3.12 strikes/minute and he is landing 3.70 per minute. Diamond, on the other hand, takes 3.24 strikes/min and is dishing out 0.22 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Rafael Alves (+175)

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