Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima Pick, 7/29/2023 Predictions UFC 291 Odds

Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

UFC 291

Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, UT

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Derrick Lewis will face off with Marcos Rogerio de Lima at UFC 291 on Saturday, July 29, 2023. The opening line has Lewis coming in at +155 while Lima is coming in at -180.

Derrick "The Black Beast" Lewis will be looking to add a victory to his total of 26-11-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old tips the scales at 260 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Marcos "Pezao" Rogerio de Lima stands 6'1" and steps on the scale at 253 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 21-9-1. The 38-year-old extends his reach 75". With respect to significant strikes, Derrick Lewis lands 2.54 per minute and Marcos Rogerio de Lima is connecting on 3.62 significant strikes per minute. Lewis is landing 50% of the significant strikes he tries and Rogerio de Lima lands 56%. In terms of defending themselves, "The Black Beast" allows 2.59 significant strikes per min and "Pezao" absorbs 2.83. Lewis also defends 41% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Rogerio de Lima prevents 51% of the shots thrown in his direction.

In the category of takedowns, Derrick Lewis is not as effective of a wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 0.59 times per 15 min. Lewis is getting his opponent to the mat on 28% of his tries and is stuffing 52% of all takedowns attempted on him. Rogerio de Lima is taking his opponents down on 47% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 59% of the tries against him. When it comes to subbing opponents, Lewis is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.3 finishes per 15 min while Rogerio de Lima goes for 0.5 finishes per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Derrick Lewis faced Serghei Spivac and was defeated via an arm triangle in round 1. Spivac landed 36 of 54 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Lewis ended the night having landed 0 of 3 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Spivac ended up landing 12 of 21, which means his percentage was 57%. He landed 12 of 21 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Lewis landed 0% of his significant strikes by sticking 0 of 3. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 0 of 2 to the head. 0% of the significant strikes connected on by Spivac and 33% of them connected on by Lewis were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Marcos Rogerio de Lima, he squared up with Waldo Cortes-Acosta and ended up getting the victory in the fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Cortes-Acosta ended up connecting on 96% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Lima connected on 94% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Lima ended up landing 77% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 59 of 76. He ended up landing 20 of 31 significant strikes directed at the head. Cortes-Acosta ended up landing 82 of 150 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 54 of 116 to the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go, Cortes-Acosta connected on 88 of 156 and Lima ended up landing 76 of 95 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Roman Kopylov battles Claudio Ribeiro. Kopylov looks to add a victory to his career record of 10-2-0. The 32-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 75". Ribeiro measures 6'1" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 11-3-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 77". When it comes to grappling, Roman Kopylov takes his opponents to the mat 0.62 times per 3 rounds and Claudio Ribeiro gets a takedown 1.05 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Kopylov lands an average of 4.54 strikes/minute and connecting on 50% out of all the strikes he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Claudio Ribeiro, who is landing 60% of the strikes he has tried and is landing 4.22 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Miguel Baeza is set to encounter Jake Matthews. Matthews looks to add a win to his record of 18-6-0. The 28-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 73". Baeza measures 6'2" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 10-3-0. The 30-year-old stretches 74". Concerning grappling, Jake Matthews defends against 60% of his opponents' takedown tries and is taking his opponents down on 41% of his tries. Baeza is finishing his takedowns on 28% of the attempts he tries and is able to curb 85% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Matthews absorbs 2.24 strikes per minute while he dishes out 3.09 strikes per min. Baeza, on the contrary, is taking 5.10 strikes per min and is connecting on 4.88 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Derrick Lewis (+155)

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