Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles Pick, 7/29/2023 Predictions UFC 291 Odds

Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles

UFC 291

Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City, UT

Saturday, July 29, 2023

Gabriel Bonfim will take on Trevin Giles at UFC 291 on Saturday, July 29, 2023. The opening line has Bonfim coming in at -315 while Giles is at +260.

Gabriel "Marretinha" Bonfim walks into the Octagon holding a record of 14-0-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and measures 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Trevin Giles measures in at 6'0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 16-4-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 74". Concerning significant strikes, Gabriel Bonfim lands 6.95 per min and Trevin Giles is landing 2.99 significant strikes per min. Bonfim lands 38% of the significant strikes he attempts while Giles is landing 54%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Marretinha" absorbs 5.76 significant strikes per min while Giles allows 2.09. Bonfim also defends 65% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Giles is able to stop 59% of the shots thrown.

Regarding wrestling, Gabriel Bonfim is the more productive grappler as he takes his opponents down 2.98 times per 3 rds. Bonfim is getting his opponent to the mat on 85% of his tries and defending 85% of all takedown tries against him. Giles is getting his opponent to the mat on 55% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 73% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Bonfim is the more experienced submission fighter by trying 6.0 finishes per 3 rounds while Giles tries 0.3 finishes per 3 rds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Gabriel Bonfim fought Mounir Lazzez and ended up winning this fight by a guillotine choke in round 1. Lazzez ended up landing 9 of 13 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Bonfim walked away from this fight having landed 9 of 22 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Lazzez ended up landing 9 of 13, which means his percentage was 69%. He finished the fight landing 0 of 4 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Bonfim ended up landing 40% of his significant strikes by sticking 9 of 22. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 6 of 18 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Lazzez and 100% of them connected on by Bonfim were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Trevin Giles, he faced off with Preston Parsons and ended up winning this fight by split decision in round 3. Parsons connected on 80% of his significant strikes at distance and Giles ended up landing 61% of his significant strikes at distance. Giles connected on 50% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 55 of 108. He ended up landing 51 of 102 significant strikes aimed at the head. Parsons connected on 42 of 95 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 24 of 77 to the head. Regarding total strikes attempted in that fight, Parsons ended up connecting on 62 of 130 while Giles connected on 71 of 129 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Derrick Lewis squares up against Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Lewis will be looking to add a victory to his total of 26-11-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old tips the scales at 260 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Rogerio de Lima stands 6'1" and steps on the scale at 253 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 21-9-1. The 38-year-old extends his reach 75". In terms of takedowns, Derrick Lewis gets a takedown 0.59 times per 3 rounds and Marcos Rogerio de Lima takes his opponents to the canvas 1.35 times per 3 rds. Regarding striking, Lewis lands an average of 2.54 strikes/minute and connects on 50% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Marcos Rogerio de Lima, who is landing 56% of the strikes he has thrown and lands 3.62 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Claudio Ribeiro is set to battle Roman Kopylov. Kopylov looks to add a victory to his career record of 10-2-0. The 32-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 75". Ribeiro measures 6'1" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 11-3-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 77". In terms of wrestling, Roman Kopylov is preventing 89% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is scoring a takedown on 50% of his attempts. Ribeiro is finishing his takedowns on 85% of the tries he takes and is able to thwart 75% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the category of striking, Kopylov takes 3.96 strikes/min and he connects on 4.54 strikes per min. Ribeiro, moreover, is taking 2.39 strikes/minute and is landing 4.22 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Trevin Giles (+260)

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