Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman Pick, 3/18/2023 Predictions UFC 286 Odds

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman

UFC 286

The O2 in London, England

Saturday, March 18, 2023

Leon Edwards will battle Kamaru Usman at UFC 286 on Saturday, March 18, 2023. The opening line has Edwards at +200 while Usman is coming in at -250.

Leon "Rocky" Edwards holds a record of 20-3-0 (1 NC). The 31-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 74". Kamaru "The Nigerian Nightmare" Usman stands in at 6'0" and is fighting at 170 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a win to his total of 20-2-0. The 35-year-old extends his reach 76". Regarding significant strikes, Leon Edwards is landing 2.59 per min and Kamaru Usman is connecting on 4.55 significant strikes per min. Edwards lands 50% of the significant strikes he throws and Usman is landing 53%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Rocky" absorbs 2.28 significant strikes per min and "The Nigerian Nightmare" absorbs 2.56. Edwards also defends against 53% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Usman is able to curb 57% of the strikes thrown his way.

In the category of takedowns, Leon Edwards is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents down 1.39 times per 3 rounds. Edwards is getting his opponent to the mat on 33% of his attempts and is stopping 68% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Usman is getting his opponent to the mat on 48% of the takedowns he tries and defending 97% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. When it comes to going for the submission, Edwards is the more experienced submission fighter by attempting 0.4 finishes per 15 min while Usman attempts 0.1 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his previous bout, Leon Edwards faced Kamaru Usman and ended up getting the win via a kick to the head in round 5. Usman landed 189 of 247 total strikes attempted in that fight. Edwards ended the night having landed 64 of 85 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Usman ended up landing 83 of 135, which gave him a percentage of 61%. He finished the fight landing 61 of 109 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Edwards ended up landing 73% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 55 of 75. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 20 of 38 to the head. 55% of the significant strikes landed by Usman and 76% of them landed by Edwards were thrown at a distance.

In the last bout for Kamaru Usman, he went up against Leon Edwards and ended up walking away in defeat by a kick to the head in round 5. Edwards connected on 76% of his significant strikes at distance and Usman connected on 55% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Usman ended up landing 61% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 83 of 135. He connected on 61 of 109 significant strikes aimed at the head. Edwards ended up connecting on 55 of 75 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 20 of 38 to the head. Relating to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Edwards ended up landing 64 of 85 while Usman ended up connecting on 189 of 247 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Justin Gaethje enters the Octagon with Rafael Fiziev. Gaethje will be looking to add a win to his career total of 23-4-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 70". Fiziev measures in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 12-1-0. The 30-year-old has an arm span of 71". In terms of takedowns, Justin Gaethje takes his opponents to the mat 0.40 times per 15 minutes while Rafael Fiziev scores a takedown 0.36 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Gaethje connects on 7.46 strikes per min and landing 60% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Rafael Fiziev, who tags his opponent on 50% of the strikes that he throws and lands an average of 4.81 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Bryan Barberena is set to go up against Gunnar Nelson. Nelson steps into the cage with a record of 18-5-1. The 34-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The switch fighter has a reach of 72". Barberena measures 6'0" and weighs 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 18-9-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 72". When it comes to takedowns, Gunnar Nelson curbs 66% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedowns on 60% of his tries. Barberena is finishing his takedowns on 25% of his attempts and thwarts 54% of all takedown tries against him. With regard to striking, Nelson is absorbing 3.05 strikes/minute and he lands 1.83 strikes/minute. Barberena, at the same time, takes 4.90 strikes/min and is dishing out 5.92 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take Leon Edwards (+200)

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