Max Griffin vs Michael Morales Pick, 7/1/2023 Predictions UFC Vegas 76 Odds

Max Griffin vs Michael Morales

UFC Vegas 76

UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV

Saturday, July 1, 2023

Max Griffin will face off against Michael Morales at UFC Vegas 76 on Saturday, July 1, 2023. The opening moneyline has Griffin coming in at +163 while Morales is coming in at -225.

Max "Pain" Griffin comes into this fight with a record of 19-9-0. The 37-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 76". Michael Morales comes in at 6'0" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 14-0-0. The 24-year-old has a reach of 79". Regarding significant strikes, Max Griffin connects on 4.23 per minute while Michael Morales lands 5.36 significant strikes per min. Griffin connects on 50% of the significant strikes he throws and Morales lands 51%. In terms of defending in the cage, "Pain" allows 3.87 significant strikes per min and Morales takes 4.10. Griffin also prevents 57% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Morales is able to stop 40% of the shots thrown.

Concerning wrestling, Max Griffin is not as efficient of a wrestler as he gets a takedown 1.60 times per 3 rounds. Griffin is getting his opponent to the mat on 50% of his attempts and defending 71% of all takedown tries against him. Morales is scoring a takedown on 40% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 86% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. When it comes to going for the submission, Griffin is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.3 subs per 3 rounds while Morales attempts 0.6 subs per 3 rds.

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The last time he fought, Max Griffin fought Tim Means and wound up taking home the win via split decision in round 3. Means landed 143 of 215 total strikes attempted in that fight. Griffin ended the night having landed 56 of 96 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Means landed 47 of 115, which gave him a percentage of 40%. He ended up landing 18 of 64 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Griffin landed 53% of his significant strikes by landing 42 of 78. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 25 of 52 aimed at the head. 78% of the significant strikes connected on by Means and 83% of them connected on by Griffin were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Michael Morales, he battled Adam Fugitt and wound up taking home the victory via a punch to the head in round 3. Fugitt ended up landing 90% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Morales ended up landing 77% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Morales ended up landing 54% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 83 of 151. He landed 74 of 140 significant strikes aimed at the head. Fugitt ended up landing 64 of 113 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 32 of 74 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes thrown, Fugitt was 70 of 120 and Morales connected on 89 of 157 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Ismael Bonfim enters the Octagon with Benoit Saint Denis. Bonfim walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 19-3-0. The 27-year-old will fight at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 71". Saint Denis stands in at 5'11" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 10-1-0 (1 NC). The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 73". In terms of takedowns, Ismael Bonfim scores a takedown 1.35 times per 3 rds and Benoit Saint Denis scores a takedown 3.36 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Bonfim connects for an average of 5.34 strikes/minute and connects on 57% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Benoit Saint Denis, who tags the opposition on 52% of the strikes he has attempted and is connecting on 4.37 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Rinat Fakhretdinov is set to fight Kevin Lee. Lee steps into the cage holding a record of 18-7-0. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 170 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 77". Fakhretdinov stands in at 6'0" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 20-1-0. The 31-year-old has a reach of 74". When it comes to takedowns, Kevin Lee thwarts 75% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the mat on 43% of his tries. Fakhretdinov is taking his opponents down on 63% of his attempts and is able to curb 85% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Lee takes 3.56 strikes/minute and he lands 3.89 strikes/min. Fakhretdinov, notwithstanding, is absorbing 0.70 strikes/minute and is landing 2.93 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take Max Griffin (+163)

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