Steve Erceg vs Alessandro Costa Pick, 11/11/2023 Predictions UFC 295 Odds
Steve Erceg vs Alessandro Costa
Madison Square Garden in New York City
Saturday, November 11, 2023
Steve Erceg will face off with Alessandro Costa at UFC 295 on Saturday, November 11, 2023. The moneyline has Erceg at -148 while Costa is at +124.
Steve "Astroboy" Erceg walks into the cage with a record of 10-1-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 68". Alessandro "Nono" Costa measures 5'4" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 13-3-0. The 27-year-old reaches 67". In terms of significant strikes, Steve Erceg is connecting on 3.60 per minute while Alessandro Costa is landing 3.82 significant strikes per min. Erceg connects on 38% of the significant strikes he tries and Costa is connecting on 43%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Astroboy" takes 3.53 significant strikes per minute while "Nono" takes 3.01. Erceg also stops 53% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Costa curbs 63% of them.
|UFC 295||Steve Erceg||Alessandro Costa|
|Average Fight Time||15:00||11:05|
|Weight||125 lbs||125 lbs|
|Strikes Landed Per Minute||3.60||3.82|
In the grappling category, Steve Erceg is the more capable wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 3.00 times per 3 rds. Erceg is finishing his takedown attempts on 75% of his tries and is stuffing 66% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Costa is scoring a takedown on 15% of the takedowns he attempts and is defending 91% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Erceg is the more experienced of the two fighters by going for 1.0 submission per 3 rds while Costa attempts 0.6 subs per 3 rds.
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In his last fight, Steve Erceg went up against David Dvorak and ended up getting the victory in the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Dvorak landed 56 of 117 total strikes attempted in that fight. Erceg finished this fight landing 56 of 142 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Dvorak landed 53 of 114, which gave him a rate of 46%. He landed 26 of 77 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Erceg landed 38% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 54 of 140. Of those significant strikes, he landed 28 of 101 aimed at the head. 86% of the significant strikes landed by Dvorak and 85% of them landed by Erceg were thrown at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Alessandro Costa, he battled Jimmy Flick and took home the win by an elbow to the head in round 2. Flick landed 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Costa ended up landing 83% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Costa ended up connecting on 71% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 65 of 91. He ended up connecting on 37 of 58 significant strikes directed at the head. Flick connected on 14 of 37 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 6 of 27 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that contest, Flick landed 14 of 37 while Costa landed 65 of 92 total strikes.
Other fights to watch out for
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Mateusz Rebecki takes on Nurullo Aliev. Rebecki has a mark of 17-1-0. The 31-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 66". Aliev comes in at 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 9-0-0. The 22-year-old has an arm span of 72". When it comes to grappling, Mateusz Rebecki takes his opponents to the mat 3.50 times per 3 rds and Nurullo Aliev gets a takedown 3.06 times per 15 minutes. In the striking category, Rebecki connects on 5.57 strikes/minute and lands 53% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Nurullo Aliev, who lands 51% of his attempted strikes and lands an average of 2.50 per min.
Another must see fight on the night is when Viacheslav Borshchev is set to square up against Nazim Sadykhov. Sadykhov looks to add a win to his total of 9-1-0. The 29-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter reaches 69". Borshchev stands 5'11" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 7-3-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 69". In terms of grappling, Nazim Sadykhov is able to stop 75% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown tries on 85% of his attempts. Borshchev is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of his attempts and is able to defend against 35% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Sadykhov is taking 3.72 strikes per min and he is landing 4.35 strikes per minute. Borshchev, in contrast, takes 3.44 strikes per minute and dishes out 4.63 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Steve Erceg (-148)
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