Bill Algeo vs Kyle Nelson Pick, 3/30/2024 Predictions UFC Atlantic City Odds

Bill Algeo vs Kyle Nelson

UFC Atlantic City

Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City

Saturday, March 30, 2024

Bill Algeo will take on Kyle Nelson at UFC Atlantic City on Saturday, March 30, 2024. The line has Algeo priced at -218 while Nelson is coming in at +180.

Bill "Senor Perfecto" Algeo looks to add a win to his record of 18-7-0. The 34-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures 6'0". The switch fighter extends his reach 73". Kyle "The Monster" Nelson comes in at 5'11" and is weighing in at 145 lbs. The switch fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 15-5-1. The 32-year-old has a reach of 71". Regarding significant strikes, Bill Algeo connects on 6.11 per min while Kyle Nelson is connecting on 3.46 significant strikes per minute. Algeo is landing 52% of the significant strikes he throws while Nelson is connecting on 44%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Senor Perfecto" absorbs 4.41 significant strikes per min while "The Monster" absorbs 4.56. Algeo also deflects 47% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Nelson prevents 52% of the shots thrown his way.

Regarding grappling, Bill Algeo is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.89 times per 3 rounds. Algeo is getting his opponent to the mat on 46% of the times he tries and defending 56% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Nelson is taking his opponents to the mat on 20% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 73% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Algeo is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by trying 0.1 finishes per 15 min while Nelson goes for 0.7 finishes per 15 min.

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In his previous fight, Bill Algeo went up against Herbert Burns and wound up getting the victory via a knee injury to Burns in round 2. Burns ended up landing 18 of 25 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Algeo ended the night having landed 81 of 104 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Burns ended up landing 10 of 12, which gave him a percentage of 83%. He finished the fight landing 6 of 8 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Algeo ended up landing 77% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 28 of 36. Of those significant strikes, he landed 21 of 28 aimed at the head. 10% of the significant strikes landed by Burns and 7% of them connected on by Algeo were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Kyle Nelson, he battled Fernando Padilla and ended up getting the victory in the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Padilla ended up connecting on 90% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Nelson connected on 97% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Nelson ended up landing 44% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 82 of 184. He landed 43 of 143 significant strikes to the head. Padilla ended up connecting on 72 of 208 significant strikes in that battle. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 42 of 168 directed at the head. Regarding total strikes attempted in that contest, Padilla ended up landing 73 of 209 and Nelson landed 83 of 185 total strikes.

Other fights to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Chidi Njokuani takes on Rhys McKee. Njokuani looks to add a win to his total of 22-10-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 6'3". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 80". McKee measures 6'2" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 13-5-1. The 28-year-old stretches 78". In the grappling category, Chidi Njokuani takes his opponents to the mat 0.90 times per 15 minutes and Rhys McKee is averaging a takedown 0.50 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Njokuani connects for an average of 4.04 strikes/minute and connects on 60% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Rhys McKee, who is landing 48% of the strikes he has tried and is landing 6.06 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Jamall Emmers is set to take on Nate Landwehr. Landwehr will be looking to add a win to his career total of 17-5-0. The 35-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Emmers measures 5'10" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 20-7-0. The 34-year-old reaches 74". Concerning grappling, Nate Landwehr is able to thwart 86% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the mat on 41% of his attempts. Emmers is finishing his takedowns on 40% of the attempts he tries and is able to defend against 90% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Landwehr takes 5.58 strikes/minute and he is landing 6.14 per min. Emmers, notwithstanding, takes 3.79 strikes per minute and connects on 5.10 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Kyle Nelson (+180)

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