Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Rebecki Pick, 5/11/2024 Predictions UFC St. Louis Odds

Diego Ferreira vs Mateusz Rebecki

UFC St. Louis

Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Diego Ferreira will enter the Octagon with Mateusz Rebecki at UFC St. Louis on Saturday, May 11, 2024. The line has Ferreira priced at +310 while Rebecki is coming in at -395.

Diego Ferreira looks to add a win to his career record of 18-5-0. The 39-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Mateusz Rebecki measures 5'7" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 19-1-0. The 31-year-old has an arm span of 66". Regarding significant strikes, Diego Ferreira is connecting on 4.66 per min while Mateusz Rebecki lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute. Ferreira is landing 37% of the significant strikes he tries while Rebecki connects on 53%. In terms of defending in the cage, Ferreira takes 3.42 significant strikes per min while Rebecki absorbs 2.01. Ferreira also stops 56% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way and Rebecki defends against 63% of them.

When it comes to wrestling, Diego Ferreira is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents down 0.71 times per 15 minutes. Ferreira is finishing his takedown attempts on 22% of the times he tries and is stuffing 63% of the takedowns his opponents try. Rebecki is taking his opponents down on 72% of his takedown attempts and is stopping 66% of the attempts against him. In terms of going for the sub, Ferreira is less likely to go for the finish by trying 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes while Rebecki goes for 1.6 submissions per 15 min.

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In his previous fight, Diego Ferreira squared up with Michael Johnson and got a win for the night via a punch to the head in round 2. Johnson ended up landing 32 of 58 total strikes attempted in that contest. Ferreira ended the night having landed 30 of 71 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Johnson landed 32 of 58, which gave him a rate of 55%. He ended up landing 13 of 34 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Ferreira landed 42% of his significant strikes by sticking 30 of 71. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 17 of 46 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Johnson and 96% of them connected on by Ferreira were thrown at a distance.

In the last bout for Mateusz Rebecki, he faced off with Roosevelt Roberts and got a win for the night via an armbar from bottom guard in round 1. Roberts ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Rebecki landed 30% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Rebecki ended up landing 62% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 10 of 16. He connected on 7 of 11 significant strikes directed at the head. Roberts connected on 2 of 7 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 1 of 5 to the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that contest, Roberts connected on 6 of 12 while Rebecki connected on 28 of 38 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Alex Caceres opposes Sean Woodson. Caceres walks into the cage holding a mark of 21-14-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 73". Woodson measures in at 6'2" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 11-1-1. The 31-year-old reaches 78". In the grappling category, Alex Caceres gets his opposition to the mat 0.56 times per 15 minutes while Sean Woodson gets a takedown 0.76 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Caceres tags his opponents 4.16 strikes/min and is connecting on 50% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Sean Woodson, who tags his opponent on 46% of the strikes he has thrown and is landing 5.40 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Robelis Despaigne is set to enter the Octagon with Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta has a career record of 11-1-0. The 32-year-old records a weight of 260 lbs and stands in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 78". Despaigne measures 6'7" and records a weight of 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 5-0-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 84". Regarding takedowns, Waldo Cortes-Acosta is able to stop 60% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is finishing his takedowns on 15% of the times he tries. Despaigne is taking his opponents down on 15% of the tries he takes and is able to defend against 15% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Cortes-Acosta takes 4.02 strikes per minute while he deals 6.13 strikes per min. Despaigne, notwithstanding, is taking 6.67 strikes/min and connects on 23.33 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Mateusz Rebecki (-395)

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