Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva Pick, 05/10/2025 Predictions UFC 315 Odds

Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva

UFC 315

Bell Centre in Montreal

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Alexa Grasso will take on Natalia Silva at UFC 315 on Saturday, May 10, 2025. The moneyline has Grasso at +190 while Silva is priced at -230.

Alexa Grasso will be looking to add a win to her career total of 16-4-1. The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter reaches 66". Natalia Silva Silva stands 5'4" and weighs 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to her record of 18-5-1. The 28-year-old extends her reach 65". In terms of significant strikes, Alexa Grasso is landing 4.19 per minute and Natalia Silva connects on 5.19 significant strikes per min. Grasso lands 41% of the significant strikes she tries and Silva is landing 47%. Regarding defense, Grasso absorbs 3.69 significant strikes per minute while Silva allows 2.35. Grasso also prevents 58% of the significant strikes her opponents throw her way while Silva prevents 64% of the shots thrown.

In the category of takedowns, Alexa Grasso is the more competent wrestler as she is able to score a takedown 0.54 times per 3 rounds. Grasso is getting her opponent to the mat on 40% of her tries and is stuffing 54% of the takedowns her opponents try. Silva is getting her opponent to the mat on 25% of the takedowns she tries and stopping 91% of the attempts against her. Regarding going for the sub, Grasso is the more capable fighter by trying 0.7 submissions per 3 rds while Silva tries 0.4 submissions per 3 rds.

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The last time she fought, Alexa Grasso faced Valentina Shevchenko and took a loss on the night via unanimous decision in round 5. Shevchenko landed 193 of 233 total strikes that she let go. Grasso finished this fight landing 153 of 245 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Shevchenko landed 45 of 80, giving her a percentage of 56%. She finished the fight landing 38 of 71 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Grasso landed 18% of her significant strikes by sticking 18 of 100. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, she was 8 of 74 aimed at the head. 86% of the significant strikes connected on by Shevchenko and 88% of them connected on by Grasso were done at a distance.

In the last bout for Natalia Silva, she went up against Jessica Andrade and wound up getting the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Andrade landed 96% of the significant strikes she attempted at distance and Silva ended up connecting on 90% of her significant strikes at distance. Silva ended up landing 56% of the significant strikes she attempted by landing 117 of 208. She connected on 67 of 151 significant strikes directed at the head. Andrade landed 50 of 140 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, she landed 33 of 114 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes thrown, Andrade ended up connecting on 62 of 153 while Silva connected on 119 of 211 total strikes.

Other fights to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Jessica Andrade fights Jasmine Jasudavicius. Andrade comes into this bout with a mark of 26-13-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 62". Jasudavicius measures 5'7" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 13-3-0. The 36-year-old extends her reach 68". In the grappling category, Jessica Andrade gets a takedown 2.23 times per 15 minutes and Jasmine Jasudavicius is able to score a takedown 2.55 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, Andrade connects for an average of 6.44 strikes per minute and lands 50% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Jasmine Jasudavicius, who is landing 45% of the strikes she attempts and connects on 3.71 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Jack Della Maddalena is set to face off against Belal Muhammad. Muhammad walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 24-3-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Della Maddalena measures 5'11" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The switch fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 17-2-0. The 28-year-old reaches 73". In terms of grappling, Belal Muhammad is able to thwart 89% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the mat on 39% of the times he tries. Della Maddalena is finishing his takedowns on 16% of the tries he takes and defends against 70% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the category of striking, Muhammad is taking 3.48 strikes per minute while he is landing 4.39 strikes/min. Della Maddalena, notwithstanding, is taking 4.27 strikes per min and is connecting on 6.74 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Natalia Silva (-230)

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