Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds
Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot
UFC Rio
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Charles Oliveira will battle Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opening odds have Oliveira coming in at -104 while Gamrot is coming in at -116.
Charles "Do Bronxs" Oliveira steps into the Octagon with a record of 35-11-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter stretches 74". Mateusz "Gamer" Gamrot comes in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 25-3-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old stretches 70". When talking about significant strikes, Charles Oliveira is landing 3.41 per minute and Mateusz Gamrot is landing 3.35 significant strikes per min. Oliveira lands 55% of the significant strikes he throws while Gamrot is landing 51%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "Do Bronxs" takes 3.26 significant strikes per min while "Gamer" allows 3.04. Oliveira also stops 48% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Gamrot is able to thwart 59% of them.
| UFC Rio | Charles Oliveira | Mateusz Gamrot |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -104 | -116 |
| Record | 35-11-0 (1 NC) | 25-3-0 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 7:30 | 12:32 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 74" | 70" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.41 | 3.35 |
| Striking Accuracy | 55% | 51% |
Concerning grappling, Charles Oliveira is the lesser skilled wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 2.23 times per 15 min. Oliveira is finishing his takedown attempts on 39% of his tries and is stuffing 56% of all takedowns attempted on him. Gamrot is taking his opponents to the canvas on 36% of his takedown attempts and is defending 90% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Oliveira is the more able fighter by going for 2.6 finishes per 15 min while Gamrot goes for 0.1 finishes per 3 rounds.
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The last time he fought, Charles Oliveira faced Ilia Topuria and wound up walking away in defeat via a punch to the head in round 1. Topuria landed 24 of 32 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Oliveira finished this fight landing 10 of 18 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Topuria ended up landing 21 of 29, which means his percentage was 72%. He finished the fight landing 17 of 23 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Oliveira ended up landing 56% of his significant strikes by connecting on 9 of 16. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 3 of 8 to the head. 85% of the significant strikes connected on by Topuria and 88% of them landed by Oliveira were tallied at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Mateusz Gamrot, he faced off with Ludovit Klein and took home the win by unanimous decision in round 3. Klein landed 95% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Gamrot ended up connecting on 58% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Gamrot landed 59% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 65 of 110. He ended up connecting on 53 of 98 significant strikes to the head. Klein ended up landing 24 of 74 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 10 of 49 directed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he let go in that fight, Klein landed 85 of 145 and Gamrot ended up connecting on 142 of 224 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to keep an eye on
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Deiveson Figueiredo meets Montel Jackson. Figueiredo comes into this fight with a mark of 24-5-1. The 37-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and measures 5'5". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 68". Jackson stands in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career record of 15-2-0. The 33-year-old extends his reach 75". In the grappling category, Deiveson Figueiredo gets a takedown 1.69 times per 15 min while Montel Jackson is averaging a takedown 3.24 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Figueiredo connects for an average of 2.82 strikes/min and lands 54% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Montel Jackson, who is landing 53% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 3.22 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Joel Alvarez is set to battle Vicente Luque. Luque holds a mark of 23-11-1. The 33-year-old is weighing in at 170 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Alvarez stands 6'3" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 22-3-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 77". When it comes to takedowns, Vicente Luque is stopping 61% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is getting his opponent to the mat on 51% of his attempts. Alvarez is finishing his takedowns on 0% of his attempts and defends against 40% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Luque absorbs 5.25 strikes/min while he is dealing 5.02 per min. Alvarez, moreover, is taking 3.32 strikes/min and dishes out 4.51 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Charles Oliveira (-104)
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