Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/13/2025

Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev

UFC Vegas 106

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Dustin Stoltzfus will take on Nursulton Ruziboev at UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17, 2025. The opening line has Stoltzfus coming in at +240 while Ruziboev is at -298.

Dustin Stoltzfus steps into the Octagon holding a record of 16-6-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Nursulton "Black" Ruziboev stands 6'5" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 35-9-2 (2 NC). The 31-year-old extends his reach 76". When talking about significant strikes, Dustin Stoltzfus lands 3.47 per minute while Nursulton Ruziboev is landing 2.75 significant strikes per minute. Stoltzfus lands 44% of the significant strikes he attempts and Ruziboev connects on 44%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, Stoltzfus allows 3.29 significant strikes per minute while "Black" absorbs 3.78. Stoltzfus also defends 46% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Ruziboev defends against 50% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Dustin Stoltzfus ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 106	Dustin Stoltzfus	Nursulton Ruziboev
Opening Odds	+240	-298
Record	16-6-0	35-9-2 (2 NC)
Average Fight Time	8:40	6:17
Height	6'0"	6'5"
Weight	185 lbs	185 lbs
Reach	75"	76"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.47	2.75
Striking Accuracy	44%	44%

In the wrestling category, Dustin Stoltzfus is the more skilled grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 2.31 times per 3 rds. Stoltzfus is taking his opponents to the canvas on 41% of his attempts and stuffing 46% of the takedowns his opponents try. Ruziboev is scoring a takedown on 85% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 15% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. When it comes to going for the submission, Stoltzfus is the more apt fighter by attempting 1.1 subs per 15 min while Ruziboev looks to get 0.6 subs per 15 minutes.

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In his last bout, Dustin Stoltzfus faced Marc-Andre Barriault and took home the victory by a punch to the head in round 1. Barriault landed 13 of 17 total strikes that he let go. Stoltzfus walked away from this fight having landed 23 of 32 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Barriault ended up landing 7 of 11, which gave him a rate of 63%. He finished the fight landing 6 of 10 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Stoltzfus landed 65% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 13 of 20. Of those significant strikes, he was 11 of 17 aimed at the head. 0% of the significant strikes connected on by Barriault and 15% of them landed by Stoltzfus were thrown at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Nursulton Ruziboev, he went up against Eric McConico and wound up taking home the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 2. McConico ended up connecting on 100% of his significant strikes at distance and Ruziboev ended up connecting on 65% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Ruziboev landed 47% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 20 of 42. He connected on 15 of 35 significant strikes to the head. McConico connected on 5 of 13 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 1 of 5 to the head. Discussing total strikes attempted in that contest, McConico landed 6 of 16 and Ruziboev was 24 of 46 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Julian Erosa encounters Melquizael Costa. Erosa steps into the Octagon with a mark of 31-12-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 145 lbs and measures 6'1". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 74". Costa stands in at 5'10" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 23-7-0. The 28-year-old stretches 71". In terms of takedowns, Julian Erosa is able to score a takedown 1.63 times per 15 minutes while Melquizael Costa is averaging a takedown 1.95 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Erosa is landing 6.40 strikes per min and connecting on 49% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Melquizael Costa, who lands 49% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 3.86 per min.

Another bout to watch is when Thiago Moises is set to enter the Octagon with Jared Gordon. Gordon looks to add a win to his career record of 20-7-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 68". Moises comes in at 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 19-8-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 70". When it comes to takedowns, Jared Gordon prevents 62% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 31% of his attempts. Moises is taking his opponents down on 35% of his tries and stops 53% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Gordon is absorbing 3.97 strikes/minute and he connects on 5.75 strikes per minute. Moises, at the same time, takes 4.12 strikes/minute and lands 2.50 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Nursulton Ruziboev (-298)

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Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

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