Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama Pick, 08/09/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 109 Odds

Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama

UFC Vegas 109

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Elijah Smith will take on Toshiomi Kazama at UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, 2025. The opening line has Smith coming in at -700 while Kazama is priced at +500.

Elijah "Swift" Smith walks into the Octagon holding a record of 8-1-0. The 22-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Toshiomi Kazama comes in at 5'7" and weighs 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 11-4-0. The 28-year-old stretches 69". In the category of significant strikes, Elijah Smith lands 3.83 per minute while Toshiomi Kazama lands 1.72 significant strikes per minute. Smith lands 41% of the significant strikes he throws and Kazama is connecting on 53%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Swift" takes 3.87 significant strikes per minute and Kazama allows 3.89. Smith also prevents 47% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Kazama stops 42% of the shots thrown.

Concerning wrestling, Elijah Smith is the more apt grappler as he is able to score a takedown 4.00 times per 15 min. Smith is scoring a takedown on 53% of his attempts and is stopping 66% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Kazama is taking his opponents to the mat on 12% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 66% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding sub attempts, Smith is the more capable of the two fighters by attempting 1.0 submission per 3 rounds while Kazama attempts 0.6 finishes per 3 rounds.

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The last time he fought, Elijah Smith squared up with Vince Morales and ended up getting the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Morales ended up landing 42 of 90 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Smith ended the night having landed 52 of 110 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Morales landed 40 of 86, which gave him a rate of 46%. He landed 30 of 74 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Smith landed 41% of his significant strikes by connecting on 40 of 97. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 29 of 81 to the head. 90% of the significant strikes connected on by Morales and 92% of them landed by Smith were tallied at distance.

In the last fight for Toshiomi Kazama, he faced off with Charalampos Grigoriou and wound up taking home the win by way of a triangle choke in round 2. Grigoriou ended up landing 26% of his significant strikes at distance and Kazama landed 0% of his significant strikes at distance. Kazama connected on 40% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 2 of 5. He ended up landing 2 of 4 significant strikes directed at the head. Grigoriou ended up landing 26 of 38 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he landed 23 of 34 to the head. Relating to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Grigoriou was 36 of 48 and Kazama connected on 67 of 84 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

One more match to look forward to is when Uros Medic squares up in the Octagon against Gilbert Urbina. Medic looks to add a win to his career record of 10-3-0. The 32-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 71". Urbina stands 6'3" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 7-4-0. The 29-year-old has an arm span of 75". When it comes to grappling, Uros Medic takes his opponents to the canvas 0.37 times per 15 min while Gilbert Urbina scores a takedown 3.01 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Medic is landing 5.49 strikes per min and lands 60% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side we have Gilbert Urbina, who tags the opposition on 57% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 5.61 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Eric McConico is set to face off with Cody Brundage. Brundage has a career mark of 11-6-1 (1 NC). The 31-year-old is weighing in at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". McConico stands 6'0" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a career record of 9-3-1. The 35-year-old reaches 77". Concerning wrestling, Cody Brundage is preventing 68% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents down on 47% of his tries. McConico is taking his opponents to the mat on 10% of his tries and defends against 10% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Brundage takes 2.90 strikes per min and he is connecting on 2.23 strikes per minute. McConico, notwithstanding, takes 3.60 strikes/minute and is dealing 0.90 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Elijah Smith (-700)

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