Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates Pick, 08/16/2025 Predictions UFC 319 Odds
Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates
UFC 319
United Center in Chicago
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Geoff Neal will take on Carlos Prates at UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, 2025. The line has Neal coming in at +210 while Prates is at -250.
Geoff "Handz of Steel" Neal comes into this bout with a mark of 16-6-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and stands 5'11". The southpaw fighter stretches 75". Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates measures 6'1" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 21-7-0. The 31-year-old reaches 78". When talking about significant strikes, Geoff Neal is connecting on 5.05 per min while Carlos Prates connects on 3.60 significant strikes per minute. Neal is landing 51% of the significant strikes he attempts while Prates connects on 54%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Handz of Steel" allows 5.44 significant strikes per min and "The Nightmare" takes 4.79. Neal also defends against 57% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Prates deflects 48% of them.
| UFC 319 | Geoff Neal | Carlos Prates |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +210 | -250 |
| Record | 16-6-0 | 21-7-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:14 | 9:49 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'1" |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Reach | 75" | 78" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.05 | 3.60 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 54% |
In terms of grappling, Geoff Neal is the more effective grappler as he gets a takedown 0.56 times per 15 minutes. Neal is finishing his takedown attempts on 50% of his tries and is defending 87% of all takedowns attempted on him. Prates is taking his opponents to the mat on 90% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 83% of the tries against him. In terms of going for the submission, Neal is less apt at going for the finish by going for 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes while Prates tries 0.8 submissions per 3 rds.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Geoff Neal went up against Rafael Dos Anjos and ended up winning this fight via TKO in round 1. Anjos ended up landing 4 of 13 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Neal ended the night having landed 21 of 34 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Anjos landed 4 of 13, giving him a percentage of 30%. He finished the fight landing 2 of 10 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Neal landed 60% of his significant strikes by connecting on 18 of 30. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 12 of 24 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Anjos and 72% of them landed by Neal were tallied at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Carlos Prates, he faced off with Ian Machado Garry and ended up losing the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Garry ended up connecting on 95% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Prates ended up landing 79% of his significant strikes at distance. Prates connected on 48% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 63 of 129. He ended up landing 38 of 97 significant strikes aimed at the head. Garry ended up connecting on 126 of 242 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 86 of 185 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go, Garry ended up connecting on 141 of 259 and Prates connected on 64 of 132 total strikes.
Other fights to keep an eye on
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Jared Cannonier encounters Michael Page. Cannonier comes into this fight holding a mark of 18-8-0. The 41-year-old records a weight of 185 lbs and measures in at 5'11". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 77". Page comes in at 6'3" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 23-3-0. The 38-year-old extends his reach 79". In terms of takedowns, Jared Cannonier is able to score a takedown 0.46 times per 3 rds while Michael Page gets a takedown 0.30 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, Cannonier lands 4.60 strikes per min and lands 50% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Michael Page, who tags his opponent on 62% of the strikes that he throws and lands an average of 2.53 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Kai Asakura is set to battle Tim Elliott. Elliott steps into the cage holding a record of 21-13-1. The 38-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter stretches 66". Asakura measures 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 21-5-0. The 31-year-old stretches 69". In terms of grappling, Tim Elliott is preventing 59% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedowns on 47% of his tries. Asakura is finishing his takedowns on 10% of his tries and is able to thwart 57% of all takedown tries against him. With regard to striking, Elliott takes 2.66 strikes/minute while he connects on 3.39 per minute. Asakura, at the same time, is absorbing 4.52 strikes per minute and is landing 2.40 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Carlos Prates (-250)
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