Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

UFC Vegas 106

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Gilbert Burns will face off against Michael Morales at UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17, 2025. The odds have Burns coming in at +575 while Morales is coming in at -850.

Gilbert "Durinho" Burns has a record of 22-8-0. The 38-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Michael Morales measures 6'0" and weighs in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 17-0-0. The 25-year-old has a reach of 79". In terms of significant strikes, Gilbert Burns lands 3.17 per min and Michael Morales is landing 5.42 significant strikes per min. Burns is connecting on 48% of the significant strikes he tries while Morales is connecting on 48%. In terms of defending themselves, "Durinho" absorbs 3.57 significant strikes per min while Morales takes 3.42. Burns also deflects 52% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Morales is able to defend against 52% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

In the wrestling category, Gilbert Burns is the more skilled grappler as he gets a takedown 2.10 times per 3 rounds. Burns is taking his opponents to the canvas on 37% of his attempts and is stuffing 53% of the takedowns his opponents try. Morales is taking his opponents down on 41% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 92% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Burns is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 0.5 submissions per 15 min while Morales attempts 0.9 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his previous fight, Gilbert Burns faced Sean Brady and ended up taking the loss via unanimous decision in round 5. Brady landed 274 of 368 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Burns finished this fight landing 76 of 126 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Brady landed 130 of 217, which gave him a rate of 59%. He finished the fight landing 97 of 179 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Burns landed 48% of his significant strikes by connecting on 47 of 97. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 25 of 72 aimed at the head. 90% of the significant strikes landed by Brady and 68% of them landed by Burns were thrown at a distance.

In the last bout for Michael Morales, he battled Neil Magny and ended up winning this fight by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Magny landed 60% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Morales ended up landing 11% of his significant strikes at distance. Morales ended up landing 85% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 34 of 40. He ended up connecting on 30 of 35 significant strikes to the head. Magny ended up landing 5 of 11 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 1 of 7 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes thrown, Magny ended up landing 13 of 19 while Morales landed 39 of 45 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Rodolfo Bellato faces off against Paul Craig. Bellato walks into the cage with a record of 12-2-1. The 29-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Craig measures in at 6'3" and is weighing in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 17-9-1. The 37-year-old extends his reach 76". When it comes to grappling, Rodolfo Bellato gets a takedown 1.06 times per 15 min and Paul Craig is averaging a takedown 1.52 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Bellato tags his opponents 6.28 strikes/min and connects on 62% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Paul Craig, who connects on 44% of the strikes he attempts and lands an average of 2.52 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Mairon Santos is set to encounter Sodiq Yusuff. Yusuff looks to add a victory to his career record of 13-4-0. The 31-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 71". Santos measures in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 16-1-0. The 24-year-old has an arm span of 72". Concerning grappling, Sodiq Yusuff is able to thwart 62% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedowns on 20% of his tries. Santos is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of his tries and is able to thwart 40% of the takedowns his opponents try. Concerning striking, Yusuff is absorbing 4.51 strikes/min and he connects on 5.66 strikes per minute. Santos, in contrast, absorbs 2.37 strikes per minute and connects on 4.14 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Gilbert Burns (+575)

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