Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott Pick, 12/06/2025 Predictions UFC 323 Odds
Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott
UFC 323
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
Saturday, December 6, 2025
Henry Cejudo will face off with Payton Talbott at UFC 323 on Saturday, December 6, 2025. The odds have Cejudo coming in at +235 while Talbott is coming in at -275.
Henry "Triple C" Cejudo steps into the cage with a record of 16-5-0. The 38-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 64". Payton Talbott stands in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 10-1-0. The 27-year-old has an arm span of 70". Regarding significant strikes, Henry Cejudo connects on 3.82 per min and Payton Talbott connects on 6.05 significant strikes per min. Cejudo is connecting on 47% of the significant strikes he tries and Talbott connects on 54%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Triple C" allows 3.46 significant strikes per minute and Talbott allows 3.26. Cejudo also defends against 59% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Talbott stops 46% of them.
| UFC 323 | Henry Cejudo | Payton Talbott |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +235 | -275 |
| Record | 16-5-0 | 10-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:34 | 10:16 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 64" | 70" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.82 | 6.05 |
| Striking Accuracy | 47% | 54% |
When it comes to wrestling, Henry Cejudo is the more capable grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.84 times per 15 minutes. Cejudo is taking his opponents to the canvas on 31% of his tries and is stuffing 76% of all takedown attempts. Talbott is getting his opponent to the mat on 25% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 76% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of going for the submission, Cejudo is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes while Talbott goes for 0.2 submissions per 3 rds.
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In his last fight, Henry Cejudo went up against Song Yadong and ended up taking the loss by unanimous decision in round 3. Yadong landed 84 of 178 total strikes attempted in that contest. Cejudo ended the night having landed 67 of 133 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Yadong ended up landing 84 of 178 , giving him a percentage of 47%. He ended up landing 46 of 133 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Cejudo ended up landing 50% of his significant strikes by landing 67 of 133 . In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 40 of 100 pointed at the head. 97% of the significant strikes landed by Yadong and 100% of them landed by Cejudo were done at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Payton Talbott, he fought Felipe Lima and wound up getting the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Lima connected on 80% of his significant strikes at distance while Talbott landed 62% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Talbott ended up connecting on 50% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 59 of 118 . He ended up connecting on 48 of 103 significant strikes aimed at the head. Lima ended up connecting on 26 of 58 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 17 of 48 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes thrown, Lima ended up landing 37 of 70 and Talbott ended up landing 97 of 165 total strikes.
Other bouts to watch out for
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Jan Blachowicz enters the Octagon against Bogdan Guskov. Blachowicz walks into the Octagon holding a record of 29-11-1. The 42-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and comes in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 78". Guskov stands in at 6'3" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 18-3-0. The 33-year-old reaches 76". In terms of takedowns, Jan Blachowicz takes his opponents down 1.03 times per 15 minutes while Bogdan Guskov is able to score a takedown 0.50 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Blachowicz lands an average of 3.44 strikes/minute and connects on 49% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Bogdan Guskov, who connects on 55% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 4.17 per min.
Another must see fight on the night is when Manuel Torres is set to fight Grant Dawson. Dawson walks into the cage with a mark of 23-2-1. The 31-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 72". Torres measures 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 16-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 73". When it comes to takedowns, Grant Dawson prevents 57% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of his attempts. Torres is finishing his takedowns on 66% of his attempts and defends against 88% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Dawson takes 2.11 strikes per min and he connects on 3.20 per min. Torres, at the same time, is taking 4.20 strikes per min and dishes out 7.87 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Payton Talbott (-275)
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