Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento Pick, 05/31/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 107 Odds
Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento
UFC Vegas 107
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, May 31, 2025
Jafel Filho will face off against Allan Nascimento at UFC Vegas 107 on Saturday, May 31, 2025. The opening line has Filho at +130 while Nascimento is at -155.
Jafel "Pastor" Filho looks to add a victory to his career total of 16-3-0. The 32-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 68". Allan "Puro Osso" Nascimento measures in at 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 20-6-0. The 33-year-old stretches 69". Regarding significant strikes, Jafel Filho is connecting on 2.36 per minute and Allan Nascimento connects on 3.21 significant strikes per min. Filho is landing 41% of the significant strikes he tries while Nascimento is connecting on 61%. Regarding defense, "Pastor" takes 2.00 significant strikes per minute and "Puro Osso" takes 2.28. Filho also defends against 47% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Nascimento is able to defend against 50% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 107 | Jafel Filho | Allan Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +130 | -155 |
| Record | 16-3-0 | 20-6-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 8:29 | 12:04 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'8" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 68" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.36 | 3.21 |
| Striking Accuracy | 41% | 61% |
In the grappling category, Jafel Filho is the more apt grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.77 times per 3 rounds. Filho is scoring a takedown on 33% of his tries and stuffing 55% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Nascimento is taking his opponents down on 26% of the takedowns he attempts and is stuffing 16% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Filho is the more skilled of the two fighters by going for 2.6 submissions per 15 minutes while Nascimento tries 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes.
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In his previous fight, Jafel Filho fought Ode Osbourne and ended up getting the victory in the fight via rear naked choke in round 1. Osbourne ended up landing 1 of 6 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Filho finished this fight landing 43 of 66 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Osbourne landed 0 of 5, which gave him a percentage of 0%. He ended up landing 0 of 4 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Filho ended up landing 60% of his significant strikes by connecting on 21 of 35. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 18 of 31 aimed at the head. 0% of the significant strikes connected on by Osbourne and 14% of them landed by Filho were tallied at distance.
In the last fight for Allan Nascimento, he fought Carlos Hernandez and took home the win via rear naked choke in round 1. Hernandez ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Nascimento ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Nascimento landed 54% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 6 of 11. He connected on 2 of 5 significant strikes to the head. Hernandez landed 3 of 7 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 2 of 5 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes attempted in that contest, Hernandez ended up connecting on 3 of 7 while Nascimento landed 9 of 14 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other bouts to watch
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Trevin Giles goes up against Andreas Gustafsson. Giles steps into the cage holding a mark of 16-7-0. The 32-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and stands 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74". Gustafsson comes in at 6'1" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 11-2-0. The 34-year-old has a wingspan of 73". In the grappling category, Trevin Giles gets his opposition to the mat 1.07 times per 3 rds and Andreas Gustafsson is averaging a takedown 3.60 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Giles is landing 3.17 strikes per min and is connecting on 54% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Andreas Gustafsson, who tags his opponent on 77% of the strikes he has thrown and is landing 4.56 per minute.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Jordan Leavitt is set to square up in the Octagon with Kurt Holobaugh. Holobaugh walks into the Octagon with a record of 22-9-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old records a weight of 155 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Leavitt stands in at 5'9" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 11-3-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 71". Regarding wrestling, Kurt Holobaugh defends against 39% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 33% of his tries. Leavitt is taking his opponents to the mat on 25% of his tries and defends against 30% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Holobaugh takes 4.30 strikes per minute while he connects on 4.65 strikes per minute. Leavitt, in contrast, is taking 1.84 strikes per minute and is landing 2.55 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Jafel Filho (+130)
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