Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds
Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter
UFC Rio
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Jafel Filho will enter the Octagon against Clayton Carpenter at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opener has Filho at +105 while Carpenter is at -125.
Jafel "Pastor" Filho walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 16-4-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 68". Clayton Carpenter stands 5'6" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 8-1-0. The 29-year-old has a reach of 66". Regarding significant strikes, Jafel Filho is connecting on 1.92 per minute and Clayton Carpenter connects on 3.91 significant strikes per min. Filho is landing 41% of the significant strikes he attempts and Carpenter is landing 55%. When it comes to defending themselves, "Pastor" allows 1.63 significant strikes per minute and Carpenter takes 2.75. Filho also deflects 47% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Carpenter is able to curb 55% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Rio | Jafel Filho | Clayton Carpenter |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +105 | -125 |
| Record | 16-4-0 | 8-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 9:47 | 10:06 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 68" | 66" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 1.92 | 3.91 |
| Striking Accuracy | 41% | 55% |
In terms of takedowns, Jafel Filho is the more apt grappler as he scores a takedown 2.45 times per 15 minutes. Filho is getting his opponent to the mat on 42% of his tries and stuffing 66% of the takedowns his opponents try. Carpenter is scoring a takedown on 46% of the takedowns he attempts and is defending 42% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. When it comes to submission attempts, Filho is the more capable fighter by trying 2.1 finishes per 15 min while Carpenter attempts 1.5 finishes per 3 rds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Jafel Filho faced Allan Nascimento and wound up taking the loss by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Nascimento ended up landing 30 of 58 total strikes attempted in that fight. Filho ended the night having landed 40 of 63 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Nascimento ended up landing 12 of 24, which means his percentage was 50%. He landed 3 of 12 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Filho ended up landing 46% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 14 of 30. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 7 of 20 aimed at the head. 75% of the significant strikes landed by Nascimento and 42% of them landed by Filho were thrown at a distance.
In the last bout for Clayton Carpenter, he fought Lucas Rocha and got a win for the night by rear naked choke in round 2. Rocha ended up landing 94% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Carpenter ended up connecting on 58% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Carpenter ended up landing 56% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 34 of 60. He connected on 22 of 45 significant strikes directed at the head. Rocha connected on 17 of 41 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up connecting on 10 of 32 to the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that fight, Rocha was 21 of 45 and Carpenter landed 36 of 62 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other fights to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Vitor Petrino fights Thomas Petersen. Petrino holds a career record of 12-2-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 265 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 77". Petersen measures 6'1" and is fighting at 264 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career mark of 10-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 74". In the grappling category, Vitor Petrino gets a takedown 3.25 times per 15 minutes and Thomas Petersen takes his opponents down 4.42 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Petrino is connecting on 2.72 strikes per min and connecting on 45% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Thomas Petersen, who is connecting on 59% of the strikes he attempts and lands an average of 3.74 per minute.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Stewart Nicoll is set to fight Lucas Rocha. Rocha walks into the cage with a record of 17-2-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 64". Nicoll measures in at 5'5" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 8-1-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 65". In terms of grappling, Lucas Rocha is able to deflect 61% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the mat on 0% of the times he tries. Nicoll is taking his opponents to the mat on 100% of the tries he takes and is able to stop 0% of all takedown attempts. In the matter of striking, Rocha absorbs 4.48 strikes/min while he is dealing 2.00 per minute. Nicoll, notwithstanding, absorbs 1.13 strikes per minute and dishes out 3.02 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Jafel Filho (+105)
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