Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 5/13/2025

Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises

UFC Vegas 106

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Jared Gordon will battle Thiago Moises at UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17, 2025. The line has Gordon priced at -110 while Moises is priced at -110.

Jared "Flash" Gordon looks to add a win to his career record of 20-7-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 68". Thiago Moises comes in at 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 19-8-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 70". With respect to significant strikes, Jared Gordon is connecting on 5.75 per min and Thiago Moises is connecting on 2.50 significant strikes per minute. Gordon connects on 55% of the significant strikes he throws and Moises is connecting on 41%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Flash" takes 3.97 significant strikes per minute and Moises takes 4.12. Gordon also curbs 56% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Moises prevents 53% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Jared Gordon ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 106	Jared Gordon	Thiago Moises
Opening Odds	-110	-110
Record	20-7-0 (1 NC)	19-8-0
Average Fight Time	11:16	11:10
Height	5'9"	5'9"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	68"	70"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	5.75	2.50
Striking Accuracy	55%	41%

Concerning takedowns, Jared Gordon is the more skilled grappler as he gets a takedown 1.78 times per 3 rounds. Gordon is taking his opponents to the canvas on 31% of his tries and is defending 62% of all takedown attempts. Moises is taking his opponents to the mat on 35% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 53% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding sub attempts, Gordon is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.7 submissions per 15 min while Moises attempts 1.2 submissions per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Jared Gordon went up against Nasrat Haqparast and took a loss on the night by way of split decision in round 3. Haqparast landed 156 of 330 total strikes attempted in that fight. Gordon finished this fight landing 170 of 338 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Haqparast landed 146 of 316, which means his percentage was 46%. He finished the fight landing 122 of 288 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Gordon ended up landing 47% of his significant strikes by connecting on 141 of 299. Of all the significant strikes, he was 125 of 275 aimed at the head. 91% of the significant strikes landed by Haqparast and 90% of them landed by Gordon were tallied at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Thiago Moises, he faced off with Trey Ogden and wound up getting the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Ogden ended up connecting on 98% of his significant strikes at distance while Moises connected on 40% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Moises ended up connecting on 58% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 55 of 94. He landed 36 of 65 significant strikes to the head. Ogden connected on 59 of 95 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 24 of 57 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes thrown, Ogden ended up connecting on 117 of 168 while Moises ended up connecting on 75 of 124 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when HyunSung Park squares up with Carlos Hernandez. Park walks into the cage with a mark of 9-0-0. The 29-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 66". Hernandez stands 5'8" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 10-4-0. The 31-year-old stretches 67". In the grappling category, HyunSung Park scores a takedown 1.54 times per 15 min while Carlos Hernandez is able to score a takedown 1.60 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Park lands 4.15 strikes/minute and is connecting on 44% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Carlos Hernandez, who tags the opposition on 45% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 3.90 per minute.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Tainara Lisboa is set to clash with Luana Santos. Santos comes into this bout with a mark of 8-2-0. The 25-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 67". Lisboa comes in at 5'7" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 7-2-0. The 34-year-old stretches 67". Concerning grappling, Luana Santos is preventing 80% of her opponents takedown tries and is taking her opponents to the canvas on 40% of the times she tries. Lisboa is taking her opponents to the mat on 40% of her tries and is able to deflect 70% of all takedown tries against her. In the matter of striking, Santos takes 4.15 strikes per min and she is dealing 4.28 strikes/minute. Lisboa, on the other hand, is absorbing 1.40 strikes per min and is landing 2.05 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Thiago Moises (-110)

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Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

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