Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule Pick, 09/13/2025 Predictions UFC Noche 3 Odds

Jesus Aguilar vs Luis Gurule

UFC Noche 3

Frost Bank Center in San Antonio

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Jesus Aguilar will face off against Luis Gurule at UFC Noche 3 on Saturday, September 13, 2025. The opener has Aguilar coming in at +180 while Gurule is coming in at -210.

Jesus Aguilar steps into the cage holding a record of 11-3-0. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and stands 5'4". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 62". Luis "Grim" Gurule measures in at 5'5" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 10-1-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 64". When talking about significant strikes, Jesus Aguilar lands 1.73 per minute while Luis Gurule connects on 5.34 significant strikes per min. Aguilar is connecting on 45% of the significant strikes he tries and Gurule lands 48%. When it comes to defending themselves, Aguilar absorbs 1.10 significant strikes per minute and "Grim" allows 3.74. Aguilar also defends 59% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Gurule curbs 58% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

Regarding takedowns, Jesus Aguilar is the more apt grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.83 times per 15 minutes. Aguilar is finishing his takedown attempts on 35% of the times he tries and stopping 40% of the takedowns his opponents try. Gurule is getting his opponent to the mat on 16% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 50% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. In terms of subbing opponents, Aguilar is the more skilled of the two fighters by trying 1.8 submissions per 15 minutes while Gurule tries 0.4 submissions per 15 min.

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The last time he fought, Jesus Aguilar faced Rafael Estevam and walked away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Estevam ended up landing 60 of 96 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Aguilar ended the night having landed 41 of 95 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Estevam ended up landing 11 of 30, which gave him a rate of 36%. He ended up landing 6 of 20 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Aguilar landed 40% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 35 of 87. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 26 of 75 to the head. 81% of the significant strikes connected on by Estevam and 88% of them connected on by Aguilar were done at distance.

In the last fight for Luis Gurule, he fought Ode Osbourne and wound up walking away in defeat via a punch to the head in round 2. Osbourne ended up connecting on 77% of his significant strikes at distance and Gurule ended up connecting on 91% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Gurule landed 35% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 12 of 34. He connected on 3 of 13 significant strikes aimed at the head. Osbourne ended up landing 18 of 43 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 11 of 33 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes thrown, Osbourne was 22 of 50 while Gurule ended up connecting on 26 of 49 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Zachary Reese squares up against Sedriques Dumas. Reese holds a mark of 9-2-0. The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 185 lbs and comes in at 6'4". The switch fighter reaches 77". Dumas stands in at 6'2" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 10-3-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 79". In the grappling category, Zachary Reese scores a takedown 2.88 times per 3 rounds and Sedriques Dumas is able to score a takedown 1.25 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Reese is connecting on 4.28 strikes/min and landing 54% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Sedriques Dumas, who is landing 45% of his attempted strikes and is connecting on 2.10 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Amanda Lemos is set to square up against Tatiana Suarez. Suarez looks to add a win to her record of 11-1-0. The 34-year-old weighs in at 115 lbs and stands 5'5". The southpaw fighter extends her reach 66". Lemos stands in at 5'4" and tips the scales at 115 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a record of 15-4-1. The 38-year-old stretches 65". Concerning wrestling, Tatiana Suarez thwarts 80% of the takedowns her opponents go for and is taking her opponents to the canvas on 47% of the times she tries. Lemos is finishing her takedown tries on 62% of the tries she takes and thwarts 59% of all takedown tries against her. In the matter of striking, Suarez absorbs 1.58 strikes/min while she lands 3.22 strikes per min. Lemos, on the contrary, is taking 3.46 strikes per minute and is dealing 2.89 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Luis Gurule (-210)

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