Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds
Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto
UFC Rio
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Jhonata Diniz will enter the Octagon against Mario Pinto at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opening moneyline has Diniz coming in at -110 while Pinto is at -110.
Jhonata Diniz comes into this fight holding a mark of 9-1-0. The 34-year-old weighs 254 lbs and stands in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Mario Pinto stands in at 6'5" and tips the scales at 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 10-0-0. The 27-year-old stretches 79". Regarding significant strikes, Jhonata Diniz connects on 4.58 per min and Mario Pinto lands 3.67 significant strikes per min. Diniz lands 56% of the significant strikes he throws while Pinto connects on 71%. In terms of the fighter's defense, Diniz allows 3.71 significant strikes per minute and Pinto takes 5.29. Diniz also stops 59% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Pinto thwarts 51% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Rio | Jhonata Diniz | Mario Pinto |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -110 | -110 |
| Record | 9-1-0 | 10-0-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:05 | 3:41 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'5" |
| Weight | 254 lbs | 265 lbs |
| Reach | 79" | 79" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.58 | 3.67 |
| Striking Accuracy | 56% | 71% |
In the wrestling category, Jhonata Diniz FALSE as he is able to score a takedown 0.00 times per 15 minutes. Diniz is taking his opponents to the canvas on 0% of his attempts and defending 78% of the takedowns his opponents try. Pinto is finishing his takedown tries on 0% of his takedown attempts and stopping 100% of the tries against him. In terms of subbing opponents, Diniz is the more apt fighter by going for 0.5 submissions per 3 rds while Pinto goes for 0.3 submissions per 15 minutes.
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In his last fight, Jhonata Diniz went up against Alvin Hines and got a win for the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Hines ended up landing 83 of 260 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Diniz walked away from this fight having landed 112 of 182 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Hines ended up landing 82 of 259, which means his percentage was 31%. He landed 56 of 224 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Diniz ended up landing 61% of his significant strikes by landing 112 of 182. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 94 of 160 pointed at the head. 97% of the significant strikes connected on by Hines and 99% of them landed by Diniz were thrown at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Mario Pinto, he went up against Austen Lane and wound up taking home the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 2. Lane ended up connecting on 96% of his significant strikes at distance and Pinto ended up connecting on 92% of his significant strikes at distance. Pinto landed 56% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 13 of 23. He connected on 8 of 18 significant strikes directed at the head. Lane connected on 32 of 63 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 17 of 42 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes attempted in that fight, Lane was 36 of 75 and Pinto ended up landing 16 of 26 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to keep an eye on
Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Ricardo Ramos goes up against Kaan Ofli. Ramos has a career record of 17-7-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Ofli comes in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his record of 12-4-1. The 32-year-old extends his reach 66". When it comes to grappling, Ricardo Ramos scores a takedown 2.57 times per 15 min while Kaan Ofli is averaging a takedown 0.00 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Ramos lands an average of 2.97 strikes/min and is landing 36% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Kaan Ofli, who tags his opponent on 45% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 2.00 per min.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Michael Aswell is set to square up in the Octagon against Lucas Almeida. Almeida comes into this bout holding a record of 15-4-0. The 34-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Aswell measures 5'8" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 10-3-0. The 25-year-old reaches 69". When it comes to takedowns, Lucas Almeida is able to curb 53% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedowns on 0% of his tries. Aswell is taking his opponents down on 0% of his tries and is able to deflect 57% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Almeida is absorbing 5.04 strikes/min and he connects on 4.94 strikes per min. Aswell, on the other side, takes 7.93 strikes per min and connects on 9.10 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Mario Pinto (-110)
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