Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa Pick, 05/17/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 106 Odds

Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa

UFC Vegas 106

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Julian Erosa will enter the Octagon with Melquizael Costa at UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17, 2025. The opening odds have Erosa priced at +160 while Costa is priced at -192.

Julian "Juicy J" Erosa steps into the Octagon with a mark of 31-12-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 145 lbs and measures 6'1". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 74". Melquizael "Melk Cauthy" Costa stands in at 5'10" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 23-7-0. The 28-year-old stretches 71". In terms of significant strikes, Julian Erosa is connecting on 6.40 per minute while Melquizael Costa lands 3.86 significant strikes per min. Erosa is connecting on 49% of the significant strikes he tries while Costa is connecting on 49%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Juicy J" absorbs 6.21 significant strikes per min and "Melk Cauthy" absorbs 2.72. Erosa also stops 48% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Costa curbs 52% of them.

In the category of takedowns, Julian Erosa is the not as competent as a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.63 times per 3 rds. Erosa is taking his opponents to the canvas on 48% of his attempts and defending 63% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Costa is taking his opponents to the canvas on 34% of the takedowns he tries and stuffing 54% of the attempts against him. In terms of going for the sub, Erosa is less likely to go for the finish by trying 0.8 submissions per 3 rounds while Costa attempts 1.2 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his last fight, Julian Erosa fought Darren Elkins and took home the victory by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Elkins ended up landing 18 of 45 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Erosa walked away from this fight having landed 69 of 92 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Elkins ended up landing 13 of 31, which means his percentage was 41%. He landed 11 of 28 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Erosa ended up landing 73% of his significant strikes by sticking 54 of 73. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 52 of 71 to the head. 92% of the significant strikes landed by Elkins and 40% of them landed by Erosa were thrown at a distance.

In the last bout for Melquizael Costa, he went up against Christian Rodriguez and wound up taking home the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Rodriguez connected on 45% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Costa connected on 29% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Costa ended up landing 61% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 65 of 105. He connected on 39 of 72 significant strikes directed at the head. Rodriguez landed 64 of 98 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 36 of 69 directed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Rodriguez was 77 of 113 and Costa was 159 of 208 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Jared Gordon enters the Octagon with Thiago Moises. Gordon looks to add a win to his career record of 20-7-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter reaches 68". Moises comes in at 5'9" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 19-8-0. The 30-year-old has a reach of 70". In terms of takedowns, Jared Gordon gets his opposition to the mat 1.78 times per 3 rds and Thiago Moises is able to score a takedown 1.34 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Gordon is connecting on 5.75 strikes/min and connects on 55% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage we have Thiago Moises, who connects on 41% of the strikes he has thrown and is landing 2.50 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Carlos Hernandez is set to enter the Octagon against HyunSung Park. Park walks into the cage with a mark of 9-0-0. The 29-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 66". Hernandez stands 5'8" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 10-4-0. The 31-year-old stretches 67". When it comes to takedowns, HyunSung Park thwarts 85% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedown attempts on 27% of his attempts. Hernandez is taking his opponents down on 21% of his attempts and curbs 67% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Park absorbs 3.43 strikes per min and he deals 4.15 strikes/min. Hernandez, in contrast, is absorbing 3.43 strikes per minute and connects on 3.90 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Julian Erosa (+160)

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