Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Pick, 06/07/2025 Predictions UFC 316 Odds

Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer

UFC 316

Prudential Center in Newark, NJ

Saturday, June 7, 2025

Kelvin Gastelum will enter the Octagon with Joe Pyfer at UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7, 2025. The opening line has Gastelum priced at +295 while Pyfer is priced at -375.

Kelvin Gastelum steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 20-9-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter reaches 71". Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer stands in at 6'2" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 13-3-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 75". With respect to significant strikes, Kelvin Gastelum is landing 3.74 per minute while Joe Pyfer is landing 3.72 significant strikes per minute. Gastelum is landing 42% of the significant strikes he tries and Pyfer connects on 41%. When it comes to defending themselves, Gastelum absorbs 3.48 significant strikes per min and "Bodybagz" allows 3.48. Gastelum also prevents 57% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Pyfer curbs 51% of the strikes thrown his way.

In terms of takedowns, Kelvin Gastelum is not as effective of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.10 times per 3 rounds. Gastelum is scoring a takedown on 34% of his attempts and stopping 59% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Pyfer is taking his opponents to the mat on 41% of the takedowns he tries and stuffing 50% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Gastelum is less likely to go for the finish by going for 0.1 subs per 3 rounds while Pyfer goes for 0.9 subs per 3 rounds.

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In his last fight, Kelvin Gastelum went up against Daniel Rodriguez and wound up getting the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Rodriguez ended up landing 132 of 273 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Gastelum walked away from this fight having landed 123 of 250 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Rodriguez ended up landing 127 of 265 , which gave him a percentage of 47%. He ended up landing 82 of 214 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Gastelum landed 47% of his significant strikes by sticking 112 of 238 . Out of those significant strikes, he landed 77 of 193 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Rodriguez and 93% of them connected on by Gastelum were tallied at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Joe Pyfer, he squared up with Marc-Andre Barriault and wound up getting the victory by a punch to the head in round 1. Barriault connected on 0% of his significant strikes at distance and Pyfer landed 87% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Pyfer ended up landing 80% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 8 of 10 . He ended up landing 4 of 5 significant strikes directed at the head. Barriault ended up landing 0 of 5 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 0 of 3 aimed at the head. In relation to the total strikes thrown in this fight, Barriault was 0 of 5 and Pyfer connected on 8 of 10 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Vicente Luque enters the Octagon with Kevin Holland. Luque will be looking to add a win to his career record of 23-10-1. The 33-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 75". Holland stands in at 6'3" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career total of 27-13-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old stretches 81". In the grappling category, Vicente Luque scores a takedown 0.99 times per 3 rounds and Kevin Holland is averaging a takedown 0.77 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Luque lands an average of 5.05 strikes per min and connecting on 51% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Kevin Holland, who is landing 50% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 4.19 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Joshua Van is set to encounter Bruno Silva. Silva comes into this bout with a mark of 14-6-2 (1 NC). The 35-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and stands 5'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 65". Van stands 5'5" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 13-2-0. The 23-year-old has an arm span of 65". In terms of grappling, Bruno Silva stops 60% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is getting his opponent to the mat on 25% of the times he tries. Van is finishing his takedown tries on 63% of his tries and is able to deflect 80% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Silva is taking 4.08 strikes/min and he is dealing 3.54 per minute. Van, notwithstanding, is absorbing 5.24 strikes/minute and deals 8.10 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Joe Pyfer (-375)

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