Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola
UFC Vancouver
Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC
Saturday, October 18, 2025
Kyle Nelson will take on Matt Frevola at UFC Vancouver on Saturday, October 18, 2025. The opening odds have Nelson coming in at -105 while Frevola is coming in at -115.
Kyle "The Monster" Nelson comes into this bout with a mark of 16-6-1. The 34-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The switch fighter has an arm span of 71". Matt "The SteamRolla" Frevola stands in at 5'9" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 11-5-1. The 35-year-old reaches 71". When talking about significant strikes, Kyle Nelson is landing 3.51 per minute while Matt Frevola is connecting on 3.37 significant strikes per minute. Nelson is connecting on 45% of the significant strikes he throws while Frevola connects on 40%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "The Monster" absorbs 4.72 significant strikes per min and "The SteamRolla" allows 3.69. Nelson also deflects 51% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Frevola curbs 57% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC Vancouver | Kyle Nelson | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -105 | -115 |
| Record | 16-6-1 | 11-5-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 9:56 | 7:50 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 71" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.51 | 3.37 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | 40% |
In the grappling category, Kyle Nelson is not as efficient of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.06 times per 15 min. Nelson is finishing his takedown attempts on 20% of his tries and thwarting 73% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Frevola is finishing his takedown attempts on 39% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 36% of the tries against him. In terms of subbing opponents, Nelson is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.6 submissions per 3 rds while Frevola goes for 1.0 submission per 15 min.
Today’s Featured MMA Best Bet!
DOC’S SPORTS UFC is coming off a no doubt 8-unit winner last time out (play cashed in the first round). Saturday will feature a 6-unit underdog totals play you do not want to miss (10 p.m.). It comes from UFC Fight Night 260 and you can watch it live on ESPN+. Sign-up now with a daily picks package from UFC/MMA/Boxing. You can get this top rated play complimentary when you set up a free $60 account here at Doc’s Sports and use part of it towards his a one day MMA package. Join Now!
|
Get all of our UFC Picks
The last time he fought, Kyle Nelson faced Steve Garcia and took a loss on the night by an elbow to the head in round 1. Garcia ended up landing 39 of 62 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Nelson finished this fight landing 31 of 36 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Garcia landed 22 of 37, which gave him a rate of 59%. He finished the fight landing 20 of 35 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Nelson landed 50% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 1 of 2. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 0 of 1 to the head. 9% of the significant strikes landed by Garcia and 100% of them connected on by Nelson were tallied at distance.
In the last fight for Matt Frevola, he faced off with Fares Ziam and took a loss on the night by a knee to the head in round 3. Ziam landed 77% of his significant strikes at distance while Frevola ended up landing 56% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Frevola landed 27% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 16 of 59. He ended up landing 7 of 44 significant strikes directed at the head. Ziam landed 58 of 94 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 44 of 77 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes thrown, Ziam connected on 69 of 107 while Frevola connected on 25 of 72 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other fights to keep an eye on
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Charles Jourdain opposes Davey Grant. Jourdain walks into the cage with a record of 16-8-1. The 29-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The switch fighter extends his reach 69". Grant stands 5'8" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 17-7-0. The 39-year-old extends his reach 69". In the grappling category, Charles Jourdain is averaging a takedown 0.34 times per 15 minutes while Davey Grant takes his opponents down 1.04 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Jourdain connects on 5.43 strikes/min and landing 48% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Davey Grant, who is landing 44% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 5.18 per min.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when HyunSung Park is set to square up against Bruno Silva. Silva steps into the cage with a record of 14-7-2 (1 NC). The 35-year-old weighs 125 lbs and stands in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 65". Park measures 5'7" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a mark of 10-1-0. The 29-year-old reaches 66". Regarding wrestling, Bruno Silva is thwarting 60% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents down on 23% of the times he tries. Park is taking his opponents to the mat on 33% of his attempts and stops 50% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Silva is absorbing 4.81 strikes/minute and he is connecting on 3.83 strikes per minute. Park, on the other hand, is taking 2.94 strikes/min and connects on 3.66 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Kyle Nelson (-105)
Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here
Get all of Today's Free UFC Picks
Get all of Today's Expert UFC Picks
Most Recent UFC Picks
- Bruno Silva vs HyunSung Park Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Danny Barlow vs Djorden Santos Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Manon Fiorot vs Jasmine Jasudavicius Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Kyle Prepolec vs Drew Dober Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Stephanie Luciano vs Ravena Oliveira Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Charles Jourdain vs Davey Grant Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds
- Azamat Bekoev vs Yousri Belgaroui Pick, 10/18/2025 Predictions UFC Vancouver Odds