Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds
Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira
UFC Rio
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Luan Lacerda will face off with Saimon Oliveira at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opener has Lacerda coming in at -245 while Oliveira is at +210.
Luan Lacerda comes into this fight with a mark of 12-3-0. The 32-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Saimon Oliveira measures in at 5'4" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 18-6-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 72". Concerning significant strikes, Luan Lacerda is connecting on 4.52 per minute and Saimon Oliveira lands 2.67 significant strikes per min. Lacerda is connecting on 44% of the significant strikes he tries while Oliveira lands 40%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, Lacerda allows 7.07 significant strikes per min and Oliveira absorbs 4.13. Lacerda also defends 47% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Oliveira defends against 46% of them.
| UFC Rio | Luan Lacerda | Saimon Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -245 | +210 |
| Record | 12-3-0 | 18-6-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:57 | 10:29 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'4" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 72" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.52 | 2.67 |
| Striking Accuracy | 44% | 40% |
Regarding takedowns, Luan Lacerda is the more apt wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.26 times per 3 rounds. Lacerda is scoring a takedown on 25% of the times he tries and is stopping 75% of all takedowns attempted on him. Oliveira is finishing his takedowns on 25% of his takedown tries and stuffing 38% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Lacerda is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.6 subs per 3 rounds while Oliveira goes for 1.4 subs per 3 rds.
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The last time he fought, Luan Lacerda fought Da'Mon Blackshear and walked away in defeat by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Blackshear ended up landing 85 of 158 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Lacerda finished this fight landing 31 of 67 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Blackshear ended up landing 66 of 135, which means his percentage was 48%. He ended up landing 42 of 103 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Lacerda ended up landing 43% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 28 of 64. Of those significant strikes, he was 16 of 42 aimed at the head. 57% of the significant strikes connected on by Blackshear and 89% of them connected on by Lacerda were done at distance.
In the last fight for Saimon Oliveira, he went up against David Martinez and wound up losing the fight by way of a knee to the head in round 1. Martinez ended up connecting on 51% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Oliveira ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Oliveira landed 29% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 7 of 24. He ended up landing 3 of 17 significant strikes aimed at the head. Martinez ended up connecting on 27 of 41 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 21 of 34 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that fight, Martinez ended up connecting on 28 of 42 while Oliveira landed 7 of 24 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other bouts on the card to watch
One more match to look forward to is when Julia Polastri takes on Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Polastri looks to add a victory to her career record of 13-5-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 115 lbs and measures in at 5'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 63". Kowalkiewicz measures 5'3" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her record of 16-9-0. The 39-year-old extends her reach 64". When it comes to grappling, Julia Polastri takes her opponents to the mat 0.87 times per 3 rounds while Karolina Kowalkiewicz takes her opponents to the canvas 0.31 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Polastri lands 5.62 strikes per minute and is connecting on 55% out of all the strikes she attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who lands 43% of the strikes she has attempted and connects on 5.54 per min.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Mateusz Gamrot is set to battle Charles Oliveira. Oliveira steps into the Octagon with a record of 35-11-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter stretches 74". Gamrot comes in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 25-3-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old stretches 70". When it comes to takedowns, Charles Oliveira is able to defend against 56% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents to the mat on 39% of his tries. Gamrot is taking his opponents down on 36% of the attempts he tries and is able to deflect 90% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the category of striking, Oliveira takes 3.26 strikes/min and he lands 3.41 strikes per min. Gamrot, notwithstanding, takes 3.04 strikes/minute and is landing 3.35 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Saimon Oliveira (+210)
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