Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 10/7/2025

Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell

UFC Rio

Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Lucas Almeida will enter the Octagon against Michael Aswell at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The moneyline has Almeida priced at +119 while Aswell is coming in at -139.

Lucas Almeida comes into this bout holding a record of 15-4-0. The 34-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Michael "The Texas Kid" Aswell measures 5'8" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight holding a mark of 10-3-0. The 25-year-old reaches 69". In terms of significant strikes, Lucas Almeida is connecting on 4.94 per min and Michael Aswell is landing 9.10 significant strikes per minute. Almeida is connecting on 39% of the significant strikes he throws while Aswell lands 44%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, Almeida takes 5.04 significant strikes per min while "The Texas Kid" takes 7.93. Almeida also curbs 44% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Aswell is able to deflect 54% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Lucas Almeida ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Rio	Lucas Almeida	Michael Aswell
Opening Odds	+119	-139
Record	15-4-0	10-3-0
Average Fight Time	11:03	15:00
Height	5'11"	5'8"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	71"	69"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.94	9.10
Striking Accuracy	39%	44%

When it comes to grappling, Lucas Almeida FALSE as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.00 times per 3 rds. Almeida is scoring a takedown on 0% of his attempts and stuffing 53% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Aswell is taking his opponents down on 0% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 57% of the attempts against him. Regarding submission attempts, Almeida is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 0.3 subs per 15 min while Aswell goes for 0.6 subs per 3 rounds.

Today’s Featured MMA Best Bet!

DOC’S SPORTS UFC is coming off a no doubt 8-unit winner last time out (play cashed in the first round). Saturday will feature a 6-unit underdog totals play you do not want to miss (10 p.m.). It comes from UFC Fight Night 260 and you can watch it live on ESPN+. Sign-up now with a daily picks package from UFC/MMA/Boxing.

You can get this top rated play complimentary when you set up a free $60 account here at Doc’s Sports and use part of it towards his a one day MMA package. Join Now!

Get all of our UFC Picks Today

The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Lucas Almeida squared up with Danny Silva and wound up taking the loss by way of split decision in round 3. Silva landed 85 of 141 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Almeida walked away from this fight having landed 78 of 244 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Silva landed 82 of 137, giving him a percentage of 59%. He finished the fight landing 45 of 96 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Almeida ended up landing 30% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 74 of 240. Of those significant strikes, he landed 49 of 203 pointed at the head. 98% of the significant strikes landed by Silva and 98% of them landed by Almeida were tallied at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Michael Aswell, he fought Bolaji Oki and was defeated via unanimous decision in round 3. Oki ended up landing 99% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Aswell ended up connecting on 99% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Aswell ended up connecting on 38% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 118 of 309. He ended up landing 92 of 270 significant strikes directed at the head. Oki connected on 136 of 303 significant strikes in that battle. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 92 of 243 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that fight, Oki was 136 of 303 and Aswell connected on 118 of 309 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Jafel Filho faces off with Clayton Carpenter. Filho walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 16-4-0. The 32-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 68". Carpenter stands 5'6" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 8-1-0. The 29-year-old has a reach of 66". When it comes to grappling, Jafel Filho takes his opponents down 2.45 times per 15 minutes and Clayton Carpenter takes his opponents to the mat 2.23 times per 3 rds. In the striking category, Filho is connecting on 1.92 strikes per minute and connecting on 41% of his attempted strikes. On the other side we have Clayton Carpenter, who tags the opposition on 55% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 3.91 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Thomas Petersen is set to face off against Vitor Petrino. Petrino holds a career record of 12-2-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 265 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 77". Petersen measures 6'1" and is fighting at 264 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career mark of 10-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 74". In terms of grappling, Vitor Petrino is preventing 71% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is scoring a takedown on 58% of his tries. Petersen is taking his opponents down on 66% of the attempts he tries and thwarts 100% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Petrino takes 2.60 strikes per minute while he lands 2.72 strikes per minute. Petersen, in contrast, is taking 2.94 strikes per minute and connects on 3.74 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Michael Aswell (-139)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get all of Today's Free UFC Picks

Get all of Today's Expert UFC Picks

Start:	October 31, 2025 @ 11:00 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
Free $60 Account Sign Up

Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds

Most Recent UFC Picks