Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll Pick, 10/11/2025 Predictions UFC Rio Odds
Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll
UFC Rio
Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Saturday, October 11, 2025
Lucas Rocha will enter the Octagon with Stewart Nicoll at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The odds have Rocha coming in at -130 while Nicoll is priced at +110.
Lucas "Fenomeno" Rocha walks into the cage with a record of 17-2-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 64". Stewart "Kakamora" Nicoll measures in at 5'5" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 8-1-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 65". In the category of significant strikes, Lucas Rocha is landing 2.00 per min while Stewart Nicoll is connecting on 3.02 significant strikes per min. Rocha lands 44% of the significant strikes he attempts while Nicoll lands 47%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Fenomeno" takes 4.48 significant strikes per minute and "Kakamora" allows 1.13. Rocha also stops 39% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Nicoll is able to curb 40% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC Rio | Lucas Rocha | Stewart Nicoll |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -130 | +110 |
| Record | 17-2-0 | 8-1-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 6:15 | 2:39 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'5" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 64" | 65" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.00 | 3.02 |
| Striking Accuracy | 44% | 47% |
When it comes to wrestling, Lucas Rocha is not as effective of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.00 times per 3 rounds. Rocha is scoring a takedown on 0% of the times he tries and stopping 61% of all takedown tries against him. Nicoll is getting his opponent to the mat on 100% of the takedowns he tries and defending 0% of the tries against him. Regarding sub attempts, Rocha is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.2 submissions per 3 rounds while Nicoll tries 0.7 submissions per 15 min.
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In his previous bout, Lucas Rocha fought Clayton Carpenter and ended up losing the fight by rear naked choke in round 2. Carpenter ended up landing 36 of 62 total strikes attempted in that contest. Rocha walked away from this fight having landed 21 of 45 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Carpenter ended up landing 34 of 60, giving him a percentage of 56%. He ended up landing 22 of 45 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Rocha landed 41% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 17 of 41. Of all the significant strikes, he was 10 of 32 aimed at the head. 58% of the significant strikes connected on by Carpenter and 94% of them connected on by Rocha were tallied at a distance.
In the last fight for Stewart Nicoll, he fought Jesus Aguilar and ended up losing the fight via guillotine choke in round 1. Aguilar connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Nicoll ended up landing 25% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Nicoll ended up landing 47% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 8 of 17. He ended up landing 4 of 12 significant strikes directed at the head. Aguilar connected on 3 of 5 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 3 of 5 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes attempted in that fight, Aguilar ended up landing 3 of 5 while Nicoll ended up landing 15 of 29 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other fights to watch out for
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Luan Lacerda meets Saimon Oliveira. Lacerda comes into this fight with a mark of 12-3-0. The 32-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Oliveira measures in at 5'4" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 18-6-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 72". In the grappling category, Luan Lacerda is able to score a takedown 1.26 times per 15 minutes and Saimon Oliveira takes his opponents down 1.07 times per 15 minutes. When talking about striking, Lacerda lands 4.52 strikes per min and landing 44% of the strikes that he throws. The other guy in this fight is Saimon Oliveira, who connects on 40% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 2.67 per minute.
One more can't miss bout is when Karolina Kowalkiewicz is set to encounter Julia Polastri. Polastri looks to add a victory to her career record of 13-5-0. The 27-year-old steps on the scale at 115 lbs and measures in at 5'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 63". Kowalkiewicz measures 5'3" and is weighing in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her record of 16-9-0. The 39-year-old extends her reach 64". When it comes to takedowns, Julia Polastri is able to thwart 58% of the takedowns her opponents try and is getting her opponent to the mat on 80% of the times she tries. Kowalkiewicz is taking her opponents down on 22% of her tries and is able to thwart 74% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Polastri is taking 5.37 strikes per min and she is dealing 5.62 strikes per minute. Kowalkiewicz, on the other side, is taking 5.51 strikes/min and lands 5.54 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Lucas Rocha (-130)
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