Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley Pick, 06/07/2025 Predictions UFC 316 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 6/4/2025

Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley

UFC 316

Prudential Center in Newark, NJ

Saturday, June 7, 2025

Merab Dvalishvili will enter the Octagon with Sean O'Malley at UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7, 2025. The opening odds have Dvalishvili priced at -278 while O'Malley is priced at +225.

Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili walks into the Octagon with a record of 19-4-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and stands in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 68". Sean "Suga" O'Malley stands 5'11" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 18-2-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has a reach of 72". With respect to significant strikes, Merab Dvalishvili is landing 4.36 per minute while Sean O'Malley lands 6.70 significant strikes per minute. Dvalishvili is connecting on 42% of the significant strikes he tries while O'Malley lands 61%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "The Machine" takes 2.51 significant strikes per min and "Suga" takes 3.48. Dvalishvili also deflects 56% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while O'Malley curbs 60% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Merab Dvalishvili ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 316	Merab Dvalishvili	Sean O'Malley
Opening Odds	-278	+225
Record	19-4-0	18-2-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	16:45	11:04
Height	5'6"	5'11"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	68"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.36	6.70
Striking Accuracy	42%	61%

Regarding grappling, Merab Dvalishvili is the more efficient grappler as he is averaging a takedown 5.89 times per 15 min. Dvalishvili is getting his opponent to the mat on 35% of his attempts and thwarting 82% of the tries against him. O'Malley is finishing his takedowns on 42% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 61% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding subbing the opposition, Dvalishvili is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.3 subs per 15 minutes while O'Malley tries 0.7 subs per 3 rds.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Merab Dvalishvili fought Umar Nurmagomedov and ended up getting the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Nurmagomedov landed 113 of 246 total strikes that he let go. Dvalishvili ended the night having landed 142 of 293 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Nurmagomedov landed 104 of 237 , which means his percentage was 43%. He landed 76 of 199 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Dvalishvili landed 42% of his significant strikes by connecting on 111 of 259 . In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he was 71 of 207 to the head. 88% of the significant strikes connected on by Nurmagomedov and 79% of them connected on by Dvalishvili were tallied at a distance.

In the last fight for Sean O'Malley, he battled Merab Dvalishvili and wound up walking away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Dvalishvili ended up landing 35% of his significant strikes at distance and O'Malley connected on 95% of his significant strikes at distance. O'Malley connected on 52% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 47 of 89 . He connected on 22 of 48 significant strikes directed at the head. Dvalishvili ended up connecting on 82 of 164 significant strikes in that contest. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 55 of 130 to the head. Discussing total strikes thrown, Dvalishvili landed 214 of 310 and O'Malley ended up landing 49 of 91 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Kelvin Gastelum fights Joe Pyfer. Gastelum steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 20-9-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter reaches 71". Pyfer stands in at 6'2" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 13-3-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 75". In the grappling category, Kelvin Gastelum is able to score a takedown 1.10 times per 15 minutes and Joe Pyfer takes his opponents down 1.45 times per 3 rds. Regarding striking, Gastelum lands 3.74 strikes/min and connecting on 42% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side we have Joe Pyfer, who is landing 41% of the strikes that he throws and is landing 3.72 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Kevin Holland is set to fight Vicente Luque. Luque will be looking to add a win to his career record of 23-10-1. The 33-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 75". Holland stands in at 6'3" and will fight at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career total of 27-13-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old stretches 81". Regarding takedowns, Vicente Luque thwarts 62% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedown tries on 53% of the times he tries. Holland is finishing his takedowns on 37% of the attempts he tries and is able to stop 54% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Luque is taking 5.22 strikes/min while he is dealing 5.05 strikes/min. Holland, on the other side, takes 3.10 strikes/minute and is landing 4.19 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Merab Dvalishvili (-278)

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley Pick, 06/07/2025 Predictions UFC 316 Odds

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